[1] We have studied the mesospheric response to two recent stratospheric warmings by performing short-term forecasts at medium (1.5°) and high (0.5°) spatial resolution under different gravity wave drag (GWD) scenarios. We validated our models with our highaltitude analysis that extends from 0 to 90 km. For the minor warming of January 2008, reduced upper-level orographic GWD weakened the downward residual circulation and cooled the mesosphere. Parameterized nonorographic GWD increased the simulated mesospheric cooling. For the prolonged major warming of 2006, heavily attenuated orographic GWD led to pronounced cooling near 50 km. During the extended phase of this event, an unusually strong westerly polar vortex reformed in the lower mesosphere, which allowed westward propagating nonorographic gravity waves to reach the mesosphere and break, with net westward accelerations of over 50 m s. This, in turn, forced a strong residual circulation, yielding descent velocities over 2 cm s −1 between 65°N and 85°N, consistent with previous reports of enhanced downward transport of trace constituents. The resulting adiabatic heating, as evidenced by the unusually vertically displaced stratopause at 80 km, is likely a direct consequence of this enhanced gravity wave driven descent. High-resolution simulations without parameterized GWD were closer to the analysis than medium-resolution simulations with parameterized orographic GWD only, but still did not fully simulate the mesospheric thermal response. Specifically, the 80 km temperature enhancement was still underestimated in these simulations. This suggests that higher spatial resolution is needed to adequately resolve extratropical gravity wave momentum fluxes.

The quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) is a tropical lower stratospheric, downward propagating zonal wind variation, with an average period of ~28 months. The QBO has been constantly documented since 1953. Here we describe the evolution of the QBO during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2015–2016 using radiosonde observations and meteorological reanalyses. Normally, the QBO would show a steady downward propagation of the westerly phase. In 2015–2016, there was an anomalous upward displacement of this westerly phase from ~30 hPa to 15 hPa. These westerlies impinge on or “cutoff” the normal downward propagation of the easterly phase. In addition, easterly winds develop at 40 hPa. Comparisons to tropical wind statistics for the 1953 to present record demonstrate that this 2015–2016 QBO disruption is unprecedented.

No abstract

No abstract