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40Large volcanic eruptions on Earth commonly occur with collapse of the roof of a crustal magma 41 reservoir, forming a caldera. Only a few such collapses occur per century and lack of detailed 42 observations has obscured insight on mechanical interplay between collapse and eruption. We use Calderas are 1 -100 km diameter depressions found in volcanic regions of Earth and other planets. basaltic andesite) intrusive activity and eruptions (2,(9)(10)(11)(12). 59The consensus from field and modelling studies is that caldera collapse progresses from initial 60 surface downsag to fault-controlled subsidence (1, 8, 13, 14). The pre-collapse topography is obtained by subtracting the subsidence observed at the surface. As we recorded the caldera subsidence mainly on the ice (Fig. 1, Fig. S1), we made corrections and (Fig. 3A). We therefore conclude that suggestions of a large increase in ice flow out of the caldera 147 during these events (25) cannot be fitted with our data. 148Bedrock subsidence exceeding 1 m occurred within an area of 110 km 2 that extended beyond the 149 pre-existing caldera (Fig. 1, Fig. S1). After termination of collapse the total subsidence at the pre-150 existing caldera rims amounted to 3 to 11 meters ( Fig. 1D and 1E). Using subglacial radio-echo GPS station in the center of the caldera (Fig. 1A), including the rate of vertical rate of ice surface Cumulative number of M>4 caldera earthquakes, with magnitude evolution colored in red, blue and 176 grey representing clusters on the southern rim, the northern rim and smaller clusters, respectively 177 (see Fig. S5). E) Cumulative seismic moment for M>4 caldera earthquakes. from analysis of subaerial gas measurements (Fig. 4). This depth concurs with our regional on FTIR and Multi-GAS measurements (24). 194Seismicity and subsurface structure 195 We used seismic data and Distinct Element Method (DEM) numerical modelling (24), to 196 characterize the deeper collapse structure as the reactivation of a steeply-inclined ring fault (Fig. 5). 197We mostly observed seismicity at depths of 0-9 km beneath the northern and southern caldera rims 198( Fig. 5B), with earthquakes being more numerous on the northern rim. This spatial pattern of 199 seismicity is consistent with fracturing above a deflating magma reservoir that was elliptical in (Fig. 5C, D). Our best fitting models had preexisting faults dipping out at 80-85¡ from the caldera 207 center on the north side and at 85-90¡ toward the caldera center on the south side. The modeled pre- 208existing faults lay at 1-2 km below the surface on the north side and 3-4 km on the south side. 209Modeling of a more complex fault geometry or the inclusion of greater material heterogeneity may 210 further improve the data fit, but presently lacks robust geophysical constraints. components of the observed earthquakes at B ‡rdarbunga. We, however, narrowed down on 222 plausible solutions by using the micro-earthquakes (Fig. 5A). The moment tensor solutions are well 223 constrained, but the inferred d...

Osteoporotic fractures are a major cause of morbidity and mortality in ageing populations. Osteoporosis, defined as low bone mineral density (BMD) and associated fractures, have significant genetic components that are largely unknown. Linkage analysis in a large number of extended osteoporosis families in Iceland, using a phenotype that combines osteoporotic fractures and BMD measurements, showed linkage to Chromosome 20p12.3 (multipoint allele-sharing LOD, 5.10; p value, 6.3 × 10−7), results that are statistically significant after adjusting for the number of phenotypes tested and the genome-wide search. A follow-up association analysis using closely spaced polymorphic markers was performed. Three variants in the bone morphogenetic protein 2 (BMP2) gene, a missense polymorphism and two anonymous single nucleotide polymorphism haplotypes, were determined to be associated with osteoporosis in the Icelandic patients. The association is seen with many definitions of an osteoporotic phenotype, including osteoporotic fractures as well as low BMD, both before and after menopause. A replication study with a Danish cohort of postmenopausal women was conducted to confirm the contribution of the three identified variants. In conclusion, we find that a region on the short arm of Chromosome 20 contains a gene or genes that appear to be a major risk factor for osteoporosis and osteoporotic fractures, and our evidence supports the view that BMP2 is at least one of these genes.

Abstract. The response of clouds to sudden decreases in the flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR) -Forbush decrease events -has been investigated using cloud products from the space-borne MODIS instrument, which has been in operation since 2000. By focusing on pristine Southern Hemisphere ocean regions we examine areas where we believe that a cosmic ray signal should be easier to detect than elsewhere. While previous studies have mainly considered cloud cover, the high spatial and spectral resolution of MODIS allows for a more thorough study of microphysical parameters such as cloud droplet size, cloud water content and cloud optical depth, in addition to cloud cover. Averaging the results from the 22 Forbush decrease events that were considered, no statistically significant correlations were found between any of the four cloud parameters and GCR, when autocorrelations were taken into account. Splitting the area of study into six domains, all of them have a negative correlation between GCR and cloud droplet size, in agreement with a cosmic ray -cloud coupling, but in only one of the domains (eastern Atlantic Ocean) was the correlation statistically significant. Conversely, cloud optical depth is mostly negatively correlated with GCR, and in the eastern Atlantic Ocean domain that correlation is statistically significant. For cloud cover and liquid water path, the correlations with GCR are weaker, with large variations between the different domains. When only the six Forbush decrease events with the largest amplitude (more than 10% decrease) were studied, the correlations fit the hypothesis slightly better, with 16 out of 24Correspondence to: J. E. Kristjánsson (j.e.kristjansson@geo.uio.no) correlations having the expected sign, although many of the correlations are quite weak. Introducing a time lag of a few days for clouds to respond to the cosmic ray signal the correlations tend to become weaker and even to change sign.

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