We parameterized neural net-based models for the Detroit and Twin Cities metropolitan areas in the US and attempted to test whether they were transferable across both metropolitan areas. Three different types of models were developed. First, we trained and tested the neural nets within each region and compared them against observed change. Second, we used the training weights from one area and applied them to the other. Third, we selected a small subset (,1%) of the Twin Cities area where a lot of urban change occurred. Four model performance metrics are reported: (1) Kappa; (2) the scale which correct and paired omission/commission errors exceed 50%; (3) landscape pattern metrics; and (4) percentage of cells in agreement between model simulations. We found that the neural net model in most cases performed well on pattern but not location using Kappa. The model performed well only in one case where the neural net weights from one area were used to simulate the other. We suggest that landscape metrics are good to judge model performance of land use change models but that Kappa might not be reliable for situations where a small percentage of urban areas change.

No abstract

The Land Transformation Model (LTM), which has been developed to forecast urban‐use changes in a grid‐based geographical information system, was used to explore the consequences of future urban changes to the years 2020 and 2040 using non‐urban sprawl and urban‐sprawl trends. The model was executed over a large area containing nine of the major coastal watersheds of eastern Lake Michigan. We found that the Black‐Macatawa and Lower Grand watersheds will experience the most urban change in the next 20–40 years. These changes will likely impact the hydrological budget, might reduce the amount of nitrogen exported to these watersheds, result in a significant loss of prime agricultural land and reduce the amount of forest cover along the streams in many of these watersheds. The results of this work have significant implications to the Lake Michigan Lake Area Management Plan (LaMP) that was recently developed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of protruded mandibular function on bilaterally condylectomized mandibles of growing rats. Sixty 4-week-old rats were divided into three experimental and two control groups each consisting of 12 animals as follows: (A) bilateral condylectomy was performed and the mandible was left to function normally; (B) the mandible was protracted forward without any condylectomy; (C) after bilateral condylectomy, the mandible was forced to function in a protruded position; (D) the animals were used as controls without any operation or appliance; and (E) a sham operation was performed in the condylar area but no appliance was used. Mandibular protraction was achieved by means of a specific appliance acting via rubber bands pulling the mandible in a straight, forward direction with a force of 25 g for 12 hours/day. The experimental period was 30 days. Lateral and dorsoventral radiographs were taken and vital dyes were administered on days 1 and 30 for all animals. Cephalometric analysis included 10 measurements. Findings resulting from statistical analysis of measurements in the five groups are summarized as follows: (i) between group A and groups D and E, less growth was found in group A; (ii) between group B and groups D and E, more growth was found in group B; (iii) between group A and group B, more growth was found in group B; (iv) between group A and group C, more growth was found in group C; and (v) between group B and group C, more growth was found in group B. These findings support the conclusion that although mandibular propulsion enhances growth even after condylectomy, the condyle seems to be an essential element for normal growth and development.