Quantum chromodynamics (QCD) is the theory of the strong interaction, explaining (for example) the binding of three almost massless quarks into a much heavier proton or neutron--and thus most of the mass of the visible Universe. The standard model of particle physics predicts a QCD-related transition that is relevant for the evolution of the early Universe. At low temperatures, the dominant degrees of freedom are colourless bound states of hadrons (such as protons and pions). However, QCD is asymptotically free, meaning that at high energies or temperatures the interaction gets weaker and weaker, causing hadrons to break up. This behaviour underlies the predicted cosmological transition between the low-temperature hadronic phase and a high-temperature quark-gluon plasma phase (for simplicity, we use the word 'phase' to characterize regions with different dominant degrees of freedom). Despite enormous theoretical effort, the nature of this finite-temperature QCD transition (that is, first-order, second-order or analytic crossover) remains ambiguous. Here we determine the nature of the QCD transition using computationally demanding lattice calculations for physical quark masses. Susceptibilities are extrapolated to vanishing lattice spacing for three physical volumes, the smallest and largest of which differ by a factor of five. This ensures that a true transition should result in a dramatic increase of the susceptibilities. No such behaviour is observed: our finite-size scaling analysis shows that the finite-temperature QCD transition in the hot early Universe was not a real phase transition, but an analytic crossover (involving a rapid change, as opposed to a jump, as the temperature varied). As such, it will be difficult to find experimental evidence of this transition from astronomical observations.

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The present paper concludes our investigation on the QCD equation of state with 2+1 staggered flavors and one-link stout improvement. We extend our previous study [JHEP 0601:089 (2006)] by choosing even finer lattices. Lattices with $N_t=6,8$ and 10 are used, and the continuum limit is approached by checking the results at $N_t=12$. A Symanzik improved gauge and a stout-link improved staggered fermion action is utilized. We use physical quark masses, that is, for the lightest staggered pions and kaons we fix the $m_\pi/f_K$ and $m_K/f_K$ ratios to their experimental values. The pressure, the interaction measure, the energy and entropy density and the speed of sound are presented as functions of the temperature in the range $100 ...1000 \textmd{MeV}$. We give estimates for the pion mass dependence and for the contribution of the charm quark. We compare our data to the equation of state obtained by the "hotQCD" collaboration.Comment: Minor changes: Figure 1 added; Figure 15, Figure 17 and Table 5 changed. Accepted for publication in JHE