Background:Data for multiple common susceptibility alleles for breast cancer may be combined to identify women at different levels of breast cancer risk. Such stratification could guide preventive and screening strategies. However, empirical evidence for genetic risk stratification is lacking.Methods:We investigated the value of using 77 breast cancer-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for risk stratification, in a study of 33 673 breast cancer cases and 33 381 control women of European origin. We tested all possible pair-wise multiplicative interactions and constructed a 77-SNP polygenic risk score (PRS) for breast cancer overall and by estrogen receptor (ER) status. Absolute risks of breast cancer by PRS were derived from relative risk estimates and UK incidence and mortality rates.Results:There was no strong evidence for departure from a multiplicative model for any SNP pair. Women in the highest 1% of the PRS had a three-fold increased risk of developing breast cancer compared with women in the middle quintile (odds ratio [OR] = 3.36, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.95 to 3.83). The ORs for ER-positive and ER-negative disease were 3.73 (95% CI = 3.24 to 4.30) and 2.80 (95% CI = 2.26 to 3.46), respectively. Lifetime risk of breast cancer for women in the lowest and highest quintiles of the PRS were 5.2% and 16.6% for a woman without family history, and 8.6% and 24.4% for a woman with a first-degree family history of breast cancer.Conclusions:The PRS stratifies breast cancer risk in women both with and without a family history of breast cancer. The observed level of risk discrimination could inform targeted screening and prevention strategies. Further discrimination may be achievable through combining the PRS with lifestyle/environmental factors, although these were not considered in this report.

Regular aspirin use, at doses similar to those recommended for the prevention of cardiovascular disease, substantially reduces the risk of colorectal cancer. However, this benefit may not be evident until after at least a decade of regular aspirin consumption.

Previous studies suggest that increased physical activity may lower the risk of breast cancer incidence, but less is known about whether levels of physical activity after breast cancer diagnosis can influence survival. We prospectively examined the relation between postdiagnosis recreational physical activity and risk of breast cancer death in women who had a previous invasive breast cancer diagnosed between 1988 and 2001 (at ages 20-79 years). All women completed a questionnaire on recent postdiagnosis physical activity and other lifestyle factors. Among 4,482 women without history of recurrence at the time of completing the questionnaire, 109 died from breast cancer within 6 years of enrollment. Physical activity was expressed as metabolic equivalent task-hours per week (MET-h/wk); hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were estimated using Cox proportional hazards regression. After adjusting for age at diagnosis, stage of disease, state of residence, interval between diagnosis and physical activity assessment, body mass index, menopausal status, hormone therapy use, energy intake, education, family history of breast cancer, and treatment modality compared with women expending <2.8 MET-h/wk in physical activity, women who engaged in greater levels of activity had a significantly lower risk of dying from breast cancer (HR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.39-1.08 for 2.8-7.9 MET-h/wk; HR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.35-1.01 for 8.0-20.9 MET-h/wk; and HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.29-0.89 for z21.0 MET-h/wk; P for trend = 0.05). Results were similar for overall survival (HR, 0.44; 95% CI, 0.32-0.60 for z21.0 versus <2.8 MET-h/wk; P for trend <0.001) and were similar regardless of a woman's age, stage of disease, and body mass index. This study provides support for reduced overall mortality and mortality from breast cancer among women who engage in physical activity after breast cancer diagnosis. (Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev 2008;17(2):379 -86)

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a dreaded complication of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC); however, marked variability in the incidence of CCA in PSC is reported. Furthermore, limited information exists on risk factors for the development of CCA in PSC. The aim of this study was to determine the incidence of CCA in patients with PSC and to evaluate baseline risk factors for the later development of CCA. From a previous study of the natural history of PSC, we identified 161 patients with PSC who did not have CCA at study entry. Patients were followed until a diagnosis of CCA was established, liver transplantation was performed, or death occurred. Patients were followed for a median of 11.5 yr (interquartile range 4.0-16.1 yr). Fifty-nine patients (36.6%) died, 50 patients (31.1%) underwent liver transplantation, and 11 patients (6.8%) developed CCA. The rate of CCA developing was approximately 0.6% per year. Compared to the incidence rates of CCA in the general population, the relative risk of CCA in PSC was significantly increased (RR = 1,560; 95%CI = 780, 2,793; p < 0.0001). On univariate analysis, a history of variceal bleeding (p < 0.001), proctocolectomy (p= 0.01), and lack of symptoms (p= 0.02) were significant risk factors for CCA with the Mayo Risk Score being marginally significant (p= 0.051). Multivariate analysis determined only variceal bleeding to be a significant risk factor for CCA (RR 24.2; 95%CI: 3.3-67.1). No association was found between the duration of PSC and the incidence of CCA. In conclusion, approximately 7% of PSC patients later developed CCA over a mean follow-up of 11.5 yr, which is dramatically higher than the rates in the general population. Variceal bleeding is a major risk factor for the later development of CCA.