SignificanceComplex systems in many fields, because of their intrinsic nonlinear dynamics, can exhibit a tipping point (point of no return) at which a total collapse of the system occurs. In ecosystems, environmental deterioration can lead to evolution toward a tipping point. To predict tipping point is an outstanding and extremely challenging problem. Using complex bipartite mutualistic networks, we articulate a dimension reduction strategy and establish its general applicability to predicting tipping points using a large number of empirical networks. Not only can our reduced model serve as a paradigm for understanding the tipping point dynamics in real world ecosystems for safeguarding pollinators, the principle can also be extended to other disciplines to address critical issues, such as resilience and sustainability.
A common difficulty in applications of machine learning is the lack of any general principle for guiding the choices of key parameters of the underlying neural network. Focusing on a class of recurrent neural networks -reservoir computing systems that have recently been exploited for model-free prediction of nonlinear dynamical systems, we uncover a surprising phenomenon: the emergence of an interval in the spectral radius of the neural network in which the prediction error is minimized. In a three-dimensional representation of the error versus time and spectral radius, the interval corresponds to the bottom region of a "valley." Such a valley arises for a variety of spatiotemporal dynamical systems described by nonlinear partial differential equations, regardless of the structure and the edge-weight distribution of the underlying reservoir network. We also find that, while the particular location and size of the valley would depend on the details of the target system to be predicted, the interval tends to be larger for undirected than for directed networks. The valley phenomenon can be beneficial to the design of optimal reservoir computing, representing a small step forward in understanding these machine-learning systems.
Reservoir computing systems, a class of recurrent neural networks, have recently been exploited for modelfree, data-based prediction of the state evolution of a variety of chaotic dynamical systems. The prediction horizon demonstrated has been about half dozen Lyapunov time. Is it possible to significantly extend the prediction time beyond what has been achieved so far? We articulate a scheme incorporating time-dependent but sparse data inputs into reservoir computing and demonstrate that such rare "updates" of the actual state practically enable an arbitrarily long prediction horizon for a variety of chaotic systems. A physical understanding based on the theory of temporal synchronization is developed.
The beneficial role of noise in promoting species coexistence and preventing extinction has been recognized in theoretical ecology, but previous studies were mostly concerned with low-dimensional systems. We investigate the interplay between noise and nonlinear dynamics in real-world complex mutualistic networks with a focus on species recovery in the aftermath of a tipping point. Particularly, as a critical parameter such as the mutualistic interaction strength passes through a tipping point, the system collapses and approaches an extinction state through a dramatic reduction in the species populations to near-zero values. We demonstrate the striking effect of noise: when the direction of parameter change is reversed through the tipping point, noise enables species recovery which otherwise would not be possible. We uncover an algebraic scaling law between the noise amplitude and the parameter distance from the tipping point to the recovery point and provide a physical understanding through analyzing the nonlinear dynamics based on an effective, reduced-dimension model. Noise, in the form of small population fluctuations, can thus play a positive role in protecting high-dimensional, complex ecological networks.
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