Circumboreal forest ecosystems are exposed to a larger magnitude of warming in comparison with the global average, as a result of warming-induced environmental changes. However, it is not clear how tree growth in these ecosystems responds to these changes. In this study, we investigated the sensitivity of forest productivity to climate change using ring width indices (RWI) from a tree-ring width dataset accessed from the International Tree-Ring Data Bank and gridded climate datasets from the Climate Research Unit. A negative relationship of RWI with summer temperature and recent reductions in RWI were typically observed in continental dry regions, such as inner Alaska and Canada, southern Europe, and the southern part of eastern Siberia. We then developed a multiple regression model with regional meteorological parameters to predict RWI, and then applied to these models to predict how tree growth will respond to twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5 scenario). The projections showed a spatial variation and future continuous reduction in tree growth in those continental dry regions. The spatial variation, however, could not be reproduced by a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). The DGVM projected a generally positive trend in future tree growth all over the circumboreal region. These results indicate that DGVMs may overestimate future wood net primary productivity (NPP) in continental dry regions such as these; this seems to be common feature of current DGVMs. DGVMs should be able to express the negative effect of warming on tree growth, so that they simulate the observed recent reduction in tree growth in continental dry regions.

Following its initial appearance in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) quickly spread around the globe. Here, we evaluated the role of climate (temperature and precipitation), region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility (BCG vaccination factors, malaria incidence, and percentage of the population aged over 65 years), and human mobility (relative amounts of international visitors) in shaping the geographical patterns of COVID-19 case numbers across 1,020 countries/regions, and examined the sequential shift that occurred from December 2019 to June 30, 2020 in multiple drivers of the cumulative number of COVID-19 cases. Our regression model adequately explains the cumulative COVID-19 case numbers (per 1 million population). As the COVID-19 spread progressed, the explanatory power (R 2) of the model increased, reaching > 70% in April 2020. Climate, host mobility, and host susceptibility to COVID-19 largely explained the variance among COVID-19 case numbers across locations; the relative importance of host mobility and that of host susceptibility to COVID-19 were both greater than that of climate. Notably, the relative importance of these factors changed over time; the number of days from outbreak onset drove COVID-19 spread in the early stage, then human mobility accelerated the pandemic, and lastly climate (temperature) propelled the phase following disease expansion. Our findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic is deterministically driven by climate suitability, cross-border human mobility, and region-specific COVID-19 susceptibility. The identification of these multiple drivers of the COVID-19 outbreak trajectory, based on mapping the spread of COVID-19, will contribute to a better understanding of the COVID-19 disease transmission risk and inform long-term preventative measures against this disease.

We describe the physiological responses of boreal conifers to climate change for the past 112 years using ring‐width and carbon isotope ratio (δ13C) chronologies at six forest sites in northern Eurasia and Canada. Responses differed among regions, depending on their climatic and/or geographic characteristics. Tree radial growth decreased over the past 52 years in central eastern Siberia with the higher rate of summer temperature increase than other regions, as indicated by the negative correlation between radial growth and summer temperature, but increased in northern Europe and Canada. Changes in tree‐ring δ13C indicated that recent climatic conditions have induced stronger drought stress for trees from central eastern Siberia than for those from other regions. The observed tree growth trends were compared to those simulated using a dynamic global vegetation model. Although the modeled annual net primary production (NPP) for trees generally exhibited similar decadal variation to radial growth, simulations did not show a recent decrease in tree growth, even in central eastern Siberia. This was probably due to an overestimation of the sensitivity of modeled tree NPP to precipitation. Our results suggest that the tree NPP forecasted under the expected future increases in temperature and average precipitation might be overestimated, especially in severely dry regions such as central eastern Siberia.

Edge-effects greatly extend the area of tropical forests degraded through human activities. At Pasoh, Peninsular Malaysia, it has been suggested that soil disturbance by highly abundant wild pigs (Sus scrofa), which feed in adjacent Oil Palm plantations, may have mediated the invasion of Clidemia hirta (Melastomataceae) into the diverse tropical lowland rain forest. To investigate this hypothesis, we established three 1 km transects from the forest/Oil Palm plantation boundary into the forest interior. We recorded the distribution of soil disturbance by wild pigs, C. hirta abundance, and environmental variables. These data were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model that incorporated spatial auto-correlation in the environmental variables. As predicted, soil disturbance by wild pigs declined with distance from forest edge and C. hirta abundance was correlated with the level of soil disturbance. Importantly there was no effect of distance on C. hirta abundance, after controlling for the effect of soil disturbance. Clidemia hirta abundance was also correlated with the presence of canopy openings, but there was no significant association between the occurrence of canopy openings and distance from the edge. Increased levels of soil disturbance and C. hirta abundance were still detectable approximately 1 km from the edge, demonstrating the potential for exceptionally large-scale animal mediated edge effects.

Tropical volcanoes are an important but understudied ecosystem, and the relationships between plant species diversity and compositional change and elevation may differ from mountains created by uplift, because of their younger and more homogeneous soils. We sampled vegetation over an altitudinal gradient on Mt. Rinjani, Lombok, Indonesia. We modeled alpha- (plot) and beta- (among plot) diversity (Fisher's alpha), compositional change, and biomass against elevation and selected covariates. We also examined community phylogenetic structure across the elevational gradient. We recorded 902 trees and shrubs among 92 species, and 67 species of ground-cover plants. For understorey, subcanopy and canopy plants, an increase in elevation was associated with a decline in alpha-diversity, whereas data for ground-cover plants suggested a hump-shaped pattern. Elevation was consistently the most important factor in determining alpha-diversity for all components. The alpha-diversity of ground-cover vegetation was also negatively correlated with leaf area index, which suggests low light conditions in the understorey may limit diversity at lower elevations. Beta-diversity increased with elevation for ground-cover plants and declined at higher elevations for other components of the vegetation. However, statistical power was low and we could not resolve the relative importance to beta-diversity of different factors. Multivariate GLMs of variation in community composition among plots explained 67.05%, 27.63%, 18.24%, and 19.80% of the variation (deviance) for ground-cover, understorey, subcanopy and canopy plants, respectively, and demonstrated that elevation was a consistently important factor in determining community composition. Above-ground biomass showed no significant pattern with elevation and was also not significantly associated with alpha-diversity. At lower elevations communities had a random phylogenetic structure, but from 1600 m communities were phylogenetically clustered. This suggests a greater role of environmental filtering at higher elevations, and thus provides a possible explanation for the observed decline in diversity with elevation.