Two experiments examined kindergartners', first graders', and second graders' numerical estimation, the internal representations that gave rise to the estimates, and the general hypothesis that developmental sequences within a domain tend to repeat themselves in new contexts. Development of estimation in this age range on 0-to-100 number lines followed the pattern observed previously with older children on 0-to-1,000 lines. Between kindergarten and second grade (6 and 8 years), patterns of estimates progressed from consistently logarithmic to a mixture of logarithmic and linear to a primarily linear pattern. Individual differences in number-line estimation correlated strongly with math achievement test scores, improved estimation accuracy proved attributable to increased linearity of estimates, and exposure to relevant experience tended to improve estimation accuracy.

The authors examined developmental and individual differences in pure numerical estimation, the type of estimation that depends solely on knowledge of numbers. Children between kindergarten and 4th grade were asked to solve 4 types of numerical estimation problems: computational, numerosity, measurement, and number line. In Experiment 1, kindergartners and 1st, 2nd, and 3rd graders were presented problems involving the numbers 0-100; in Experiment 2, 2nd and 4th graders were presented problems involving the numbers 0-1,000. Parallel developmental trends, involving increasing reliance on linear representations of numbers and decreasing reliance on logarithmic ones, emerged across different types of estimation. Consistent individual differences across tasks were also apparent, and all types of estimation skill were positively related to math achievement test scores. Implications for understanding of mathematics learning in general are discussed.

This study examined whether the quality of first graders' (mean age = 7.2 years) numerical magnitude representations is correlated with, predictive of, and causally related to their arithmetic learning. The children's pretest numerical magnitude representations were found to be correlated with their pretest arithmetic knowledge and to be predictive of their learning of answers to unfamiliar arithmetic problems. The relation to learning of unfamiliar problems remained after controlling for prior arithmetic knowledge, short-term memory for numbers, and math achievement test scores. Moreover, presenting randomly chosen children with accurate visual representations of the magnitudes of addends and sums improved their learning of the answers to the problems. Thus, representations of numerical magnitude are both correlationally and causally related to arithmetic learning.

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