Background Tens of millions of children are exposed to Mycobacterium tuberculosis globally every year; however, there are no contemporary estimates of the risk of developing tuberculosis in exposed children. The effectiveness of contact investigations and preventive therapy remains poorly understood.Methods In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we investigated the development of tuberculosis in children closely exposed to a tuberculosis case and followed for incident disease. We restricted our search to cohort studies published between Jan 1, 1998, and April 6, 2018, in MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS, and Embase electronic databases. Individual-participant data and a pre-specified list of variables were requested from authors of all eligible studies. These included characteristics of the exposed child, the index case, and environmental characteristics. To be eligible for inclusion in the final analysis, a dataset needed to include: (1) individuals below 19 years of age; (2) followup for tuberculosis for a minimum of 6 months; (3) individuals with household or close exposure to an individual with tuberculosis; (4) information on the age and sex of the child; and (5) start and end follow-up dates. Studies assessing incident tuberculosis but without dates or time of follow-up were excluded. Our analysis had two primary aims:(1) estimating the risk of developing tuberculosis by time-period of follow-up, demographics (age, region), and clinical attributes (HIV, tuberculosis infection status, previous tuberculosis); and (2) estimating the effectiveness of preventive therapy and BCG vaccination on the risk of developing tuberculosis. We estimated the odds of prevalent tuberculosis with mixed-effects logistic models and estimated adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for incident tuberculosis with mixedeffects Poisson regression models. The effectiveness of preventive therapy against incident tuberculosis was estimated through propensity score matching. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO (CRD42018087022).Findings In total, study groups from 46 cohort studies in 34 countries-29 (63%) prospective studies and 17 (37%) retrospective-agreed to share their data and were included in the final analysis. 137 647 tuberculosis-exposed children were evaluated at baseline and 130 512 children were followed for 429 538 person-years, during which 1299 prevalent and 999 incident tuberculosis cases were diagnosed. Children not receiving preventive therapy with a positive result for tuberculosis infection had significantly higher 2-year cumulative tuberculosis incidence than children with a negative result for tuberculosis infection, and this incidence was greatest among children below 5 years of age (19•0% [95% CI 8•4-37•4]). The effectiveness of preventive therapy was 63% (adjusted HR 0•37 [95% CI 0•30-0•47]) among all exposed children, and 91% (adjusted HR 0•09 [0•05-0•15]) among those with a positive result for tuberculosis infection. Among all children <5 years of age who developed tuberculosis, 83% were diagnosed within 9...

Background The clinical course of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) is unpredictable. Clinical prediction tools are not accurate enough to predict disease outcomes. Methods All-comers with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis diagnosis were enrolled in a six-cohort study. Peripheral blood mononuclear cells or whole blood was collected at baseline from 425 participants and during follow up from 98 patients. The 52-gene signature was measured by the nCounter® analysis system in four cohorts and extracted from microarray data in two others. The Scoring Algorithm for Molecular Subphenotypes (SAMS) was used to classify patients into low or high risk groups based on a 52-gene signature. Mortality and transplant-free survival were studied using Competing risk and Cox proportional-hazard models, respectively. Time course data and response to anti-fibrotic drugs were analyzed using linear mixed-effect models. Findings The application of SAMS to the 52-gene signature identified two groups of IPF patients (low and high risk) with significant differences in mortality or transplant-free survival in each of the six cohorts (HR 2·03–4·37). Pooled data revealed similar results for mortality (HR:2·18, 95%CI:1·53–3·09, P<0·0001) or transplant-free survival (HR:2·04, 95%CI: 1·52–2·74, P<0·0001). Adding 52-gene risk profiles to the Gender, Age and Physiology (GAP) index significantly improved its mortality predictive accuracy. Temporal changes in SAMS scores were associated with changes in forced vital capacity (FVC) in two cohorts. Untreated patients did not shift their risk profile over time. A simultaneous increase in up score and decrease in down score was predictive of transplant-free survival (HR:3·18· 95%CI 1·16, 8·76, P=0·025) in the Pittsburgh cohort. A simultaneous decrease in up score and increase in down score after initiation of anti-fibrotic drugs was associated with a significant (P=0·005) improvement in FVC in the Yale cohort. Interpretation The peripheral blood 52-gene expression signature is predictive of outcome in patients with IPF. The potential value of the 52-gene signature in predicting response to therapy should be determined in prospective studies.

A biomarker index of SP-D, MMP-7, and osteopontin enhanced diagnostic accuracy in patients with IPF compared with those with non-IPF ILD. Our data suggest that this biomarker index may improve diagnostic confidence in IPF.

Aging has been implicated in the development of pulmonary fibrosis, which has seen a sharp increase in incidence in those older than 50 years. Recent studies demonstrate a role for the nucleotide-binding domain and leucine rich repeat containing family, pyrin domain containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome and its regulated cytokines in experimental lung fibrosis. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that age-related NLRP3 inflammasome activation is an important predisposing factor in the development of pulmonary fibrosis. Briefly, young and aged wild-type and NLRP3(-/-) mice were subjected to bleomycin-induced lung injury. Pulmonary fibrosis was determined by histology and hydroxyproline accumulation. Bone marrow and alveolar macrophages were isolated from these mice. NLRP3 inflammasome activation was assessed by co-immunoprecipitation experiments. IL-1β and IL-18 production was measured by ELISA. The current study demonstrated that aged wild-type mice developed more lung fibrosis and exhibited increased morbidity and mortality after bleomycin-induced lung injury, when compared with young mice. Bleomycin-exposed aged NLRP3(-/-) mice had reduced fibrosis compared with their wild-type age-matched counterparts. Bone marrow-derived and alveolar macrophages from aged mice displayed higher levels of NLRP3 inflammasome activation and caspase-1-dependent IL-1β and IL-18 production, which was associated with altered mitochondrial function and increased production of reactive oxygen species. Our study demonstrated that age-dependent increases in alveolar macrophage mitochondrial reactive oxygen species production and NLRP3 inflammasome activation contribute to the development of experimental fibrosis.