Data missing not at random (MNAR) is a major challenge in survey sampling. We propose an approach based on registry data to deal with non-ignorable missingness in health examination surveys. The approach relies on follow-up data available from administrative registers several years after the survey. For illustration we use data on smoking prevalence in Finnish National FINRISK study conducted in 1972-1997. The data consist of measured survey information including missingness indicators, register-based background information and register-based time-to-disease survival data. The parameters of missingness mechanism are estimable with these data although the original survey data are MNAR. The underlying data generation process is modelled by a Bayesian model. The results indicate that the estimated smoking prevalence rates in Finland may be significantly affected by missing data.Comment: in Stat, 201
The aim of this study was to monitor long‐term changes in bone mineral density (BMD) after menopause and factors affecting BMD. The study population consisted of a random sample of 3222 women from the Kuopio Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention (OSTPRE) study, of which 62.1% were postmenopausal at the beginning of the study. This group of women underwent dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements at the femoral neck every 5 years from baseline (in 1989) up to 25‐year follow‐up. They also responded to risk‐factor questionnaires at 5‐year intervals. During the 25‐year follow‐up, the baseline cohort decreased to 686 women. The women were divided into quartiles based on their baseline BMD. Self‐reported hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and corticosteroid use were divided into ever users and never users. Morbidity was assessed as the total number of self‐reported diseases and BMD‐affecting diseases. The mean 25‐year BMD change was found to be −10.1%, p < 0.001. Higher baseline BMD was associated with higher bone loss rate; the reduction in the highest quartile BMD was 11.1% and in the lowest quartile 7.4% (p = 0.0031). Lower baseline body mass index (BMI) and a greater increase in BMI were found to protect against postmenopausal bone loss (p < 0.001). The lowest bone loss quartile included 15.2% more HRT users than the highest bone loss quartile (p = 0.004). The number of diseases/bone‐affecting diseases, use of vitamin D/calcium supplementation, use of corticosteroids, smoking or alcohol use had no statistical significance for annual bone loss rate. This study presents hitherto the longest (25‐year) BMD follow‐up in postmenopausal women. The linear femoral neck bone loss of 10% was less than previously assumed. A 5‐year BMD change appeared to predict long‐term bone loss in postmenopausal women. © 2021 The Authors. Journal of Bone and Mineral Research published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).
The proposed approach improves the prevalence estimation but requires follow-up data on non-participants and Bayesian modelling.
In this study, we found that regional disparity in incidence of hip fractures has converged. Also, annual hip fracture risk ratios between genders have systematically diminished over time. Introduction Several studies have reported secular trends in hip fracture incidence, but knowledge about the possible causes is limited. We studied potential explanations by examining spatio-temporal epidemiology of the fractures and estimating relative risks between genders. Methods This observational study was based on all inpatient hospital discharges in 1972-2018 in Finland. We divided the data by gender, 5-year age groups and Finnish sub-regions and estimated gender and age standardized spatio-temporal rates of hip fractures by using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model. Results In 1972, women's hip fracture incidence was 1.2-1.3 times higher in western and coastal Finland compared to eastern and inland areas. Also, women had approximately 1.7 times higher average risk to get a hip fracture compared to men. Today, the hip fracture differences between the areas have converged to insignificant and the relative risk between genders has diminished to 1.2. Age-specific relative risks indicate greater hip fracture risk for younger men and older women, and the women's risk increases beyond the risk of men at age 65 which is ten years later than in the beginning of the study period. Conclusion Incidence of hip fracture has converged significantly between regions and genders. Especially factors related with socioeconomic development and increased frailty and longevity seem to be important. The hip fracture incidence rate ratio between women and men has systematically decreased in time, and more attention should be paid to hip fracture risk in men in the future.
Knowledge of current fishing mortality rates is an important prerequisite for formulating management plans for the recovery of threatened stocks. We present a method for estimating migration and fishing mortality rates for anadromous fishes that combines tag return data from commercial and recreational fisheries with expert opinion in a Bayesian framework. By integrating diverse sources of information and allowing for missing data, this approach may be particularly applicable in data-limited situations. Wild populations of anadromous sea trout (Salmo trutta) in the northern Baltic Sea have undergone severe declines, with the loss of many populations. The contribution of fisheries to this decline has not been quantified, but is thought to be significant. We apply the Bayesian mark-recapture model to two reared sea trout stocks from the Finnish Isojoki and Lestijoki Rivers. Over the study period (1987–2012), the total harvest rate was estimated to average 0.82 y–1 for the Isojoki River stock and 0.74 y−1 for the Lestijoki River stock. Recreational gillnet fishing at sea was estimated to be the most important source of fishing mortality for both stocks, particularly during the 1980s and 1990s. Our results indicate a high probability of unsustainable levels of fishing mortality for both stocks, and illustrate the importance of considering the effect of recreational fisheries on fish population dynamics.
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