This paper provides some theoretical scenarios the socioeconomic impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). To do so, after a brief literature review of previous pandemics, we use the macro and microeconomic theory, together with aggregated data, in order to provide expected implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the LAC region. At a macroeconomic level, we explain how the COVID-19 shock is causing both aggregate supply and aggregate demand to reduce so plunging the region into a recession and why such a recession is dangerously harmful for the LAC economies. At a micro level, we describe why some enterprises would adapt to remain in the market or even growth; by contrast, some of them would leave the market in the short term. For the consumers, the impact of this sanitary crisis is related to the change in their preferences and household members’ relations due to extended quarantines.
This research reports the effects of Coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak on expected tourism revenues for preservation in the Galapagos Islands, a well-known international tourism destination. We explore the trends and construct a seasonal index to estimate the expected number of visitors in the Galapagos National Park (GNP) as well as the potential revenue from the fee entrance in the park, which is used for preservation activities. Our results indicate that in our optimistic scenario, losses would account for half of the revenues in 2020,having a high impact on the Galapagos National Park preservation activities. Based on our results, we recommend GNP and Ecuadorian authorities to look for alternative sources of funding, so conservation programs in the park can continue with no interruption.
This article reports an investigation of the drivers of Venezuelan asylum seekers—people who have left this country given the scarcity of food and medicines and the troubled actual socio-economic situation. To do so, we use data about the main countries in which Venezuelans have claimed for asylum during the period 2014–17. Using a panel-regression model, we have found that Venezuelan asylum seekers increase, on average, in countries that (i) are geographically nearby Venezuela, (ii) are less politically stable and (iii) have higher real income per capita, lower inflation rates and higher unemployment rates. Still, such a general profile of countries preferred by Venezuelan asylum seekers is nuanced by the small magnitude of the effects regarding the economic variables: it appears that Venezuelan asylum seekers hardly consider the economic situation of a country for deciding to stay. Furthermore, the empirical evidence provided by our model reflects the deterioration of Venezuela’s socio-economic aspects.
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