PALABRAS CLAVE: Agavaceae, calentamiento global, colonización asistida, desfasamiento entre genotipos y ambiente, migración asistida. KEYWORDS:Agavaceae, global warming, assisted colonization, decoupling between genotype and environment, global warming. INTRODUCCIÓNAgave cupreata, una planta de la familia Agavaceae, es endémica del suroccidente de México, en los estados de Guerrero y Michoacán. La especie se distribuye en las laderas de la Depresión del Balsas entre 1,220 y 1,850 m, en la transición entre el bosque tropical RESUMENLos individuos maduros de Agave cupreata son cosechados para producir mezcal, una bebida alcohólica artesanal. El objetivo de este trabajo fue estimar el desfasamiento potencial del hábitat apropiado, debido al cambio climático, entre las poblaciones y el clima al cual están adaptados. Para ello, se estimó el clima contemporáneo (promedio 1961-1990) y futuro (año 2030) de 12 localidades donde se distribuyen las poblaciones naturales. Las estimaciones se hicieron utilizando un modelo climático "spline", basado en resultados del modelo de circulación global canadiense, escenario de emisiones intermedio A1B. La estimación de la temperatura promedio de las 12 procedencias para el clima contemporáneo fue 19.1 °C y la estimación de la precipitación fue 961 mm. La predicción para el año 2030 fue 20.5 °C y 833 mm, con un incremento de temperatura de 1.4 °C y un decremento de precipitación de 13.3 %. Los resultados indican que el clima propicio para A. cupreata ocurrirá entre 175 y 225 m de altitud mayor que las localidades en donde actualmente se encuentran las poblaciones. Por tanto, se sugiere establecer plantaciones de conservación ex situ y comerciales bajo las condiciones mencionadas, como una medida de manejo de migración asistida para adaptarse al cambio climático predicho. ABSTRACTMature individuals of Agave cupreata are harvested to produce an artisan distilled alcoholic beverage (mescal). The objective of this study was to estimate the potential decoupling of suitable habitat due to climatic change, between the populations and the climate for which they are adapted. Therefore, the contemporary (average and future (decade centered in the year 2030) climate for 12 localities was estimated, where natural populations are distributed, using a spline climate model, based on outputs from the Canadian General Circulation Model and intermediate emission scenario A1B. Average temperature estimates of the 12 provenances for contemporary climate was 19.1 °C and precipitation estimates was 961 mm. Predicted for year 2030 was 20.5 °C and 833 mm, with a temperature increment of 1.4 °C and a precipitation decrease of 13.3 %. Results indicate that suitable climate for A. cupreata will occur at 175 to 225 m of higher elevations than the locations were populations are presently. Therefore, It is suggested to establish ex situ conservation and commercial plantations under the conditions mentioned above, as assisted migration management measure for adaptation to the predicted climatic change.
Agave cupreata Trel. & Berger is an endemic plant naturally distributed in the Balsas Depression, a semiarid region in the states of Guerrero and Michoacán in Southwestern México. Their populations are heavily decimated because mature individuals just before their single life flowering period are harvested to produce mezcal, an alcoholic beverage. The genetic variation among and within 12 natural populations was examined for nine isozyme loci. Results indicate high average proportion of polymorphic loci (93 %) and expected heterozygosity (He = 0.467), with an excess of observed heterozygotes in relation to Hardy-Weinberg expectations (Ho = 0.521, FIS = -0.1179). These results represent the largest heterozygosity reported for Agave species endemic to México. There is also a statistically significant genetic differentiation among populations (FST = 0.042). An UPGMA dendrogram reveals the absence of a geographic pattern, as confi rmed by a Mantel test (r = -0.110, P = 0.769), which did not show significant isolation by distance. Estimated minimum viable effective population size was very large (Ne =16,165), larger than in any other known natural population. To protect the natural genetic variation, it is suggested to design and manage A. cupreata natural populations as forest genetic resource conservation units (FGRCUs) using realistic and modest Ne sizes, perhaps between 500 and 5000 plants, ideally with intermediate plantations that could serve as pollinator corridors. Commercial plantations and ex situ FGRCUs need to be established to gradually develop a sustainable management, perhaps at higher altitudes than current locations, as a management measure for adaptation to the climatic change.
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