There are natural synergies between shared autonomous vehicle (AV) fleets and electric vehicle (EV) technology, since fleets of AVs resolve the practical limitations of today's non-autonomous EVs, including traveler range anxiety, access to charging infrastructure, and charging time management. Fleet-managed AVs relieve such concerns, managing range and charging activities based on real-time trip demand and established charging-station locations, as demonstrated in this paper. This work explores the management of a fleet of shared autonomous (battery-only) electric vehicles (SAEVs) in a regional discrete-time, agent-based model. The simulation examines the operation of SAEVs under various vehicle range and charging infrastructure scenarios in a gridded city modeled roughly after the densities of Austin, Texas. Results based on 2009 NHTS trip distance and time-of-day distributions indicate that fleet size is sensitive to battery recharge time and vehicle range, with each 80-mile range SAEV replacing 3.7 privately owned vehicles and each 200-mile range SAEV replacing 5.5 privately owned vehicles, under Level II (240-volt AC) charging. With Level III 480-volt DC fast-charging infrastructure in place, these ratios rise to 5.4 vehicles for the 80-mile range SAEV and 6.8 vehicles for the 200-mile range SAEV. SAEVs can serve 96 to 98% of trip requests with average wait times between 7 and 10 minutes per trip. However, due to the need to travel while "empty" for charging and passenger pickup , SAEV fleets are predicted to generate an additional 7.1 to 14.0% of travel miles. Financial analysis suggests that the combined cost of charging infrastructure, vehicle capital and maintenance, electricity, insurance, and registration for a fleet of SAEVs ranges from $0.42 to $0.49 per occupied mile traveled, which implies SAEV service can be offered at the equivalent per-mile cost of private vehicle ownership for low mileage
In reinforcement learning, importance sampling is a widely used method for evaluating an expectation under the distribution of data of one policy when the data has in fact been generated by a different policy. Importance sampling requires computing the likelihood ratio between the action probabilities of a target policy and those of the data-producing behavior policy. In this article, we study importance sampling where the behavior policy action probabilities are replaced by their maximum likelihood estimate of these probabilities under the observed data. We show this general technique reduces variance due to sampling error in Monte Carlo style estimators. We introduce two novel estimators that use this technique to estimate expected values that arise in the RL literature. We find that these general estimators reduce the variance of Monte Carlo sampling methods, leading to faster learning for policy gradient algorithms and more accurate off-policy policy evaluation. We also provide theoretical analysis showing that our new estimators are consistent and have asymptotically lower variance than Monte Carlo estimators.
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