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Background. The prognostic value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in patients with COVID-19 is rarely described in older adults. We aimed to estimate the prognostic value of NLR and PLR, determining the mortality of adults over 60 years of age hospitalized for COVID-19 in three hospitals in Peru from March to May 2020. Methods. We performed a secondary analysis of data from a retrospective cohort carried out in Lambayeque, Peru, from March 18 to May 13, 2020. Older adults hospitalized for COVID-19 were included. The outcome variable was in-hospital mortality by all causes, while the exposure variable was the NLR and PLR (categorized in tertiles and numerically, performing a logarithmic transformation). We included sociodemographic variables, comorbidities, vital functions, laboratory markers, and treatment received during hospital stay. We evaluated the association between NLR and PLR using the hazard ratio (HR) in a Cox regression model. We estimated HR with their respective 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). We estimated cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curves and reported area under the curve ROC (AUC-ROC) for 15-, 30-, and 60-day mortality with their respective simultaneous confidence intervals (confidence bands (CB)). Also, we estimated an optimal cut-off point based on the maximally selected rank statistics. Results. A total of 262 hospitalized older adults were analyzed, 71.8% ( n = 188 ) of whom were male with a median age of 70 years (interquartile range: 65-78). The mean NLR and PLR were 16.8 (95% CI: 14.9-18.7; SD: 15.5) and 50.3 (95% CI: 44.6-55.9; SD: 46.3), respectively. The mortality rate was 68.7% (95% CI: 62.7-74.3). The adjusted Cox regression analysis showed that the high NLR ( adjusted   HR   aHR = 2.12 ; 95% CI: 1.43-3.14) and PLR ( aHR = 1.90 ; 95% CI: 1.30-2.79) tertiles were associated with a higher risk of mortality. The maximum AUC-ROC values at 60 days of follow-up for NLR and PLR were 0.713 (95%CB: 0.627-0.800) and 0.697 (95%CB: 0.583-0.754), respectively. Conclusions. The NLR and PLR are predictors of higher risk of mortality, and these results suggest that both could be reliable and practical markers for the identification of older adults at high risk of mortality by COVID-19. NLR and PLR have prognostic value, with an AUC greater than 0.5; however, by themselves, they are weak prognostic markers. It is important to carry out future studies incorporating these two markers into preexisting models or designing new ones considering them.

ObjectiveTo assess the spatial distribution, trends and determinants of crude full vaccination coverage (FVC) in children aged 12–59 months between 2010 and 2019 in Peru.Design, setting and analysisA cross-sectional study based on the secondary data analysis of the 2010 and 2019 Peruvian Demographic and Health Surveys (DHSs) was conducted. Logit based multivariate decomposition analysis was employed to identify factors contributing to differences in FVC between 2010 and 2019. The spatial distribution of FVC in 2019 was evaluated through spatial autocorrelation (Global Moran’s I), ordinary kriging interpolation (Gaussian process regression) and Bernoulli-based purely spatial scan statistic.Outcome measureFVC, as crude coverage, was defined as having completely received BCG; three doses of diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus, and polio vaccines; and measles vaccine by 12 months of age.ParticipantsA total of 5 751 and 14 144 children aged 12–59 months from 2010 and 2019 DHSs, respectively, were included.ResultsFVC increased from 53.62% (95% CI 51.75% to 55.49%) in 2010 to 75.86% (95% CI 74.84% to 76.85%) in 2019. Most of the increase (70.39%) was attributable to differences in coefficients effects. Family size, visit of health workers in the last 12 months, age of the mother at first delivery, place of delivery and antenatal care follow-up were all significantly associated with the increase. The trend of FVC was non-linear and increased by 2.22% annually between 2010 and 2019. FVC distribution was heterogeneous at intradepartmental and interdepartmental level. Seven high-risk clusters of incomplete coverage were identified.ConclusionsAlthough FVC has increased in Peru, it still remains below the recommended threshold. The increase of FVC was mainly attributed to the change in the effects of the characteristics of the population. There was high heterogeneity across Peruvian regions with the presence of high-risk clusters. Interventions must be redirected to reduce these geographical disparities.

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