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Female C3B10RF1 mice maintained on either a control (approximately 95 kcal/week) or restricted (approximately 55 kcal/week) diet since weaning were tested in a behavioral battery at 11 to 15 or 31 to 35 months of age (middle-aged vs. aged). Age-related declines observed among control groups in tests of motor coordination (rotorod) and learning (complex maze) were prevented by the restriction regime. In addition, diet restriction increased locomotor activity in a runwheel cage among mice of both ages but did not affect exploratory activity in a novel arena.

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Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time series have not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of the potential value of these models in international relations, political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We review recent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modeling in theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methods for constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulse responses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A reference prior for these models that has proven useful in short-and medium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Once modified to incorporate our experience analyzing political data and our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecast over the short and medium terms complex political dynamics like those exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition, we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed, contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals. The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in a reanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.