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Many studies have examined the short‐term and long‐term effects of price promotions. This study adds to previous research by examining, in some depth, the effects of a massively successful price promotion in a consumer goods category. This study sought to determine if this large price promotion had any: longer‐term effect on brand volume; short‐term effect on total category volume for the retailer; short‐term effect on competing retailers; and longer‐term effect on category sales for the retailer that ran the promotion. The results showed that this promotion did not have any longer‐term (positive or negative) effect on the brand, but it did expand the total category for the retailer, albeit temporarily. Sales dropped slightly for one competing retailer at the time of the promotion, but not for the other two retailers in the market. Finally, the study found that the promotion was followed by a decline in total category volume for the retailer, suggesting some degree of purchase acceleration or stockpiling by consumers. The results suggest that the longer‐term negative effect on category volume cancelled out approximately two thirds of the gains of the price promotion to the retailer.

This paper examines the relationship between price changes and customer defection levels in a “subscription”‐type market, namely car insurance. Two regression models are constructed to estimate this relationship, one model for younger customers and another for older customers. The regression models closely estimate the defection rates associated with different levels of price changes. The analysis also shows that the impact of price decreases on defection rates is less than the impact of price increases, extending previous research. The paper notes that models of this type should offer true predictive ability and therefore tests the ability of the model to predict defection rates for new data. The models performed comparatively poorly in this regard, particularly for price increases. The paper concludes that multiple sets of data are needed to develop and validate predictive models.

His research interests are market structure analysis and pricing. John conducts research for many leading companies in Australasia, including Goodman Fielder, Orlando-Wyndham and Insurance Australia Group.

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