BackgroundHepatitis is a serious public health problem with increasing cases and property damage in Heng County. It is necessary to develop a model to predict the hepatitis epidemic that could be useful for preventing this disease.MethodsThe autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and the generalized regression neural network (GRNN) model were used to fit the incidence data from the Heng County CDC (Center for Disease Control and Prevention) from January 2005 to December 2012. Then, the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model was developed. The incidence data from January 2013 to December 2013 were used to validate the models. Several parameters, including mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and mean square error (MSE), were used to compare the performance among the three models.ResultsThe morbidity of hepatitis from Jan 2005 to Dec 2012 has seasonal variation and slightly rising trend. The ARIMA(0,1,2)(1,1,1)12 model was the most appropriate one with the residual test showing a white noise sequence. The smoothing factor of the basic GRNN model and the combined model was 1.8 and 0.07, respectively. The four parameters of the hybrid model were lower than those of the two single models in the validation. The parameters values of the GRNN model were the lowest in the fitting of the three models.ConclusionsThe hybrid ARIMA-GRNN model showed better hepatitis incidence forecasting in Heng County than the single ARIMA model and the basic GRNN model. It is a potential decision-supportive tool for controlling hepatitis in Heng County.

Current WHO guidelines recommend initiating ART regardless of CD4+ cell count. In response, we conducted an observational cohort study to assess the effects of pre-ART CD4+ cell count levels on death, attrition, and death or attrition in HIV treated patients. This large HIV treatment cohort study (n = 49,155) from 2010 to 2015 was conducted in Guangxi, China. We used a Cox regression model to analyze associations between pre-ART CD4+ cell counts and death, attrition, and death or attrition. The average mortality and ART attrition rates among all treated patients were 2.63 deaths and 5.32 attritions per 100 person-years, respectively. Compared to HIV patients with <350 CD4+ cells/mm3 at ART initiation, HIV patients with >500 CD4+ cells/mm3 at ART initiation had a significantly lower mortality rate (Adjusted hazard ratio: 0.56, 95% CI: 0.40–0.79), but significantly higher ART attrition rate (AHR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.03–1.33). Results from this study suggest that HIV patients with high CD4+ cell counts at the time of ART initiation may be at greater risk of treatment attrition. To further reduce ART attrition, it is imperative that patient education and healthcare provider training on ART adherence be enhanced and account for CD4 levels at ART initiation.

ObjectivesAcceptability of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) and willingness to participate in a clinical trial for both safety and efficacy of PrEP were investigated among female sex workers (FSWs) in Guangxi, China.MethodsA cross-sectional study was performed in three cities in Guangxi. Structured, self-administered questionnaires were used to assess the acceptability of PrEP and the willingness to participate in a clinical trial. Multivariable logistic regression models were fitted to identify predictors.ResultsAmong 405 participants, 15.1% had heard of PrEP. If PrEP was deemed to be effective, safe and provided for free, 85.9% reported that they would accept it, and 54.3% of those who accepted PrEP said that they would participate in a clinical trial. The increased acceptability of PrEP was associated with working in male dominated venues, higher income, a poor family relationship, better HIV/AIDS knowledge, not realizing HIV risk from unfamiliar clients, not being forced to use condoms by the gatekeepers, consistent use of condoms, and use of drugs to prevent STD infection. The increased willingness to participate in a clinical trial was associated with a poor family relationship, better HIV/AIDS knowledge, not realizing HIV risk from unfamiliar clients, a willingness to adhere to daily PreP use, and not being concerned about discrimination by others. The main reason for rejecting PrEP or participating in a clinical trial was the concern about the side effects of PrEP.ConclusionsAcceptability of PrEP among Guangxi FSWs is relatively high, indicating that PrEP intervention programs may be feasible for Chinese FSWs. Given the fact that most of the participants had never heard of PrEP before, and that family, gatekeepers, and social discrimination could significantly affect its acceptability, a comprehensive mix of multiple interventions is necessary for the successful implementation of a PrEP program among this population in Guangxi.

Rural-to-urban migrants are at high risk of HIV infection. The goal of this survey was to explore the commercial sexual behavior and condom use among male rural-to-urban migrants in western China. A cross-sectional survey on male rural-to-urban migrants in western China was conducted. Among all the subjects surveyed, 140 (7.4%) had commercial sexual behavior, which is associated with being aged older than 24 years, being of Han or other ethnic minorities, being divorced, separated, or widowed, having experienced drug abuse, having had heterosexual behavior, having had casual sexual partners, having had sex with a homosexual, and being from Xinjiang. A total of 31.4% of them never use condoms when buying sex. Not using condoms is associated with being from Chongqing, having a high school or above education, and having commercial sex monthly. Commercial sexual behavior and not using condoms are common among male rural-to-urban migrants in western China. Strategies and appropriate education should be developed to prevent HIV transmission due to high-risk sexual behaviors.

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