Multi-scenario simulation and pattern optimization of land use plays a role in improving regional functionality and balancing anthropogenic and natural environments. The simulation of future land use can provide a reference to demark the regional urban development boundary and identify spaces for ecological protection and agricultural development. Policy makers can use the simulated dynamic process to identify problems in the current trend of regional land use change. On the basis of land use data for Xiong’an New Area, China in 2010, 2015, and 2020, this paper established four scenarios to meet the planning requirements for this region: comprehensive evolution, protection of basic farmland, control of construction land, and prioritization of ecological protection. We used an optimized Markov–FLUS coupling model to simulate future land use changes. We found that the land suitability probability in the four scenarios successfully calculated the effect of land expansion in Xiong’an New Area. In 2010–2015 and 2015–2020, the overall accuracy was 0.9827 and 0.8805, respectively, and Kappa was 0.9675 and 0.7892, respectively. In 2035, the simulation results from the four scenarios and the eight land types were significantly different. Construction land, water area, wetland, and woodland increased by approximately 380%, 178%, 137%, and 3224%, respectively, while dry land and rural land decreased by approximately 55% and 43%, respectively. The multi-scenario simulation results were able to couple production, living, and ecological needs to optimize the spatial pattern and resource allocation in Xiong’an New Area. The scenarios provide new strategies to control population growth, permanently protect essential farmland, and restrict urban development.

Rapid urbanization aggravates issues related to protection and optimization of the ecological environment. Constructing an ecological network system, including ecological values in planning, and using landscape effects efficiently are important for adjusting regional ecological space and promoting local sustainable development. Land use data from eight time points between 1980 and 2020 in the Zhengzhou Metropolitan Area were used to identify the local ecological sources, corridors and nodes and to identify an ecological network with high structural integrity. The study used the FLUS, MSPA, MCR, and gravity models, hydrological analysis, and network structure evaluation by applying tools such as ArcGIS, Guidos Toolbox and Conefor. The results indicated that: (1) among the nine major ecological sources, those in the Yellow River Basin connected the large−scale sources in the east and west of the network, and the rest were located in the northeast, southeast and southwest of the research area, semi−enclosing the main urban area of Zhengzhou. (2) There were 163 least−cost paths and 58 ecological corridors, mainly distributed along the Yellow River Basin. (3) There were 70 ecological nodes, divided into 10 strategic, 27 natural ecological and 33 artificial environment nodes, distributed in key locations such as the core of each source and the intersection of corridors. (4) The ecological network included all the landscape elements in the research area and connected the main ecological substrates in a semi−enclosing network structure with one horizontal and two vertical corridors and four clusters.

An urban development boundary is an effective means to guide urban development and restrain unplanned expansion of urban space. Scientifically-based delineation and control of the boundary can help with sustainable use of land resources and better spatial planning. This study took land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 for the central urban area of Zhengzhou and predicted the land use pattern in 2035. We used auto-logistic selection of driving factors, future land use simulation, and system dynamics models to delineate the development boundary of the central urban area. We complemented and optimized the boundary using agricultural and ecological perspectives. The results indicated the following: (1) The ROC values of land driving factors were greater than 0.75 in the regression test, and the Kappa and OA were greater than 0.92 in the accuracy test of land simulation results. (2) The boundary range initially delineated based on morphology was 2319 km2. There was a clear overall development trend of the central urban area to the east and southeast, which included the historical urban area of Zhengzhou and the new government planning area. (3) The optimized boundary of the central district area was 2209 km2, the ecological land control area was 136 km2, and the basic farmland protection area was 54 km2. The Yellow River, the airport, and the western, southern, and eastern areas were already formed. The study concluded that the delineated boundary was in line with the scientific concepts of ‘rigid’ and ‘flexible’ factors, which have positive effects on the protection of arable land resources and ecological land, as well as meeting the needs of urban development. The level of sustainable development of the region was effectively improved.