Background
Hand-foot-and-mouth disease_(HFMD) is one of the most typical diseases in children that is associated with high morbidity. Reliable forecasting is crucial for prevention and control. Recently, hybrid models have become popular, and wavelet analysis has been widely performed. Better prediction accuracy may be achieved using wavelet-based hybrid models. Thus, our aim is to forecast number of HFMD cases with wavelet-based hybrid models.
Materials and methods
We fitted a wavelet-based seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA)–neural network nonlinear autoregressive (NNAR) hybrid model with HFMD weekly cases from 2009 to 2016 in Zhengzhou, China. Additionally, a single SARIMA model, simplex NNAR model, and pure SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model were established for comparison and estimation.
Results
The wavelet-based SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model demonstrates excellent performance whether in fitting or forecasting compared with other models. Its fitted and forecasting time series are similar to the actual observed time series.
Conclusions
The wavelet-based SARIMA–NNAR hybrid model fitted in this study is suitable for forecasting the number of HFMD cases. Hence, it will facilitate the prevention and control of HFMD.
Service system planning has long been supported by location‐covering models designed to address access and accessibility issues. An important aspect of many systems is limits on service, often conceptualized as facility capacities. Much research can be found that proposes modeling approaches and solution techniques to account for capacitated covering problems, and commercial GIS software exists that is capable of structuring and applying facility service limits. This article reviews issues and challenges associated with the application of capacitated covering models, including critical evaluation of allocation approaches and GIS capabilities. Case studies involving service provision in two cities in California—San Jose and Santa Barbara—are provided to highlight associated issues faced in practice. While user‐friendly commercial software makes it easy to access capacitated cover models, there remain challenges for addressing underlying considerations and assumptions in practice.
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