We apply the concept of biodiversity hotspot analysis (the identification of biogeographical regions of high species diversity) to identify invasion hotspots -areas of potentially suitable climate for multiple non-native plant speciesin Australia under current and future climates. We used the species distribution model Maxent to model climate suitability surfaces for 72 taxa, recognized as 'Weeds of National Significance' (WoNS) in Australia, under current and projected climate for 2020 and 2050. Current climate suitability layers were summed across all 72 species, and we observed two regions of high climatic suitability corresponding to the top 25th percentile of combined climatic suitability values across Australia. We defined these as potential invasion hotspots. Areas of climatic suitability equivalent to the hotspot regions were identified in the composite maps for 2020 and 2050, to track spatial changes in the hotspots over the two time steps. Two potential invasion hotspot regions were identified under current and projected climates: the south west corner of Western Australia (SW), and south eastern Australia (SE). Herbarium data confirmed the presence of 73% and 99% of those species predicted to be in each hotspot respectively, suggesting that the SE has greater invasion potential. The area of both hotspots was predicted to retract southward and towards the coast under future climate scenarios, reducing in size by 81% (SW) and 71% (SE) by 2050. This reduction was driven by the dominance of southern temperate invasive plant species in the WoNS list (47 of the 72), of which 44 were predicted to experience reductions in their bioclimatic range by 2050. While climate is likely to become less suitable for the majority of WoNS in the future, potential invasion hotspots based on climate suitability are likely to remain in the far south of eastern Australia, and in the far south west of Western Australia by 2050.

Climate change presents a new challenge for the management of invasive exotic species that threaten both biodiversity and agricultural productivity. The invasion of exotic perennial grasses throughout the globe is particularly problematic given their impacts on a broad range of native plant communities and livelihoods. As the climate continues to change, pre-emptive long-term management strategies for exotic grasses will become increasingly important. Using species distribution modelling we investigated potential changes to the location of climatically suitable habitat for some exotic perennial grass species currently in Australia, under a range of future climate scenarios for the decade centred around 2050. We focus on eleven species shortlisted or declared as the Weeds of National Significance or Alert List species in Australia, which have also become successful invaders in other parts of the world. Our results indicate that the extent of climatically suitable habitat available for all of the exotic grasses modelled is projected to decrease under climate scenarios for 2050. This reduction is most severe for the three species of Needle Grass (genus Nassella) that currently have infestations in the south-east of the continent. Combined with information on other aspects of establishment risk (e.g. demographic rates, human-use, propagule pressure), predictions of reduced climatic suitability provide justification for re-assessing which weeds are prioritised for intensive management as the climate changes.

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Summary Soil and sediment seed banks contribute to the diversity of riparian plant communities. In degraded river systems, seed banks represent an important regeneration niche that may contribute to restoration efforts through the establishment of vegetation. The vertical dimension of seed banks has been neglected in river research, despite its importance for the regeneration of vegetation after disturbances such as erosive floods. We sampled sediment at various depths within three geomorphological features: bars, benches and the floodplain, across four river reaches in the Wollombi subcatchment of New South Wales, Australia. A seedling emergence study was conducted to characterise the abundance and species richness of the germinable seed bank within these sediments. We hypothesised that the vertical distribution of seeds in bars and benches would show no clear pattern, but that bars would have lower propagule counts overall, due to their non‐cohesive sediment and potential for frequent reworking by low‐level flows. The floodplain seed bank, in contrast, would resemble that of terrestrial systems, with propagule abundance decreasing markedly with depth due to infrequent inundation and sediment reworking. In total, 9456 seedlings emerged, representing 131 different species (83 native and 47 exotic) from 47 families. Propagule abundance and species richness in bar and bench seed banks were highly variable with depth, with the greatest average propagule numbers found at 25–30 cm and 20–25 cm, respectively. In contrast, and as hypothesised, propagule abundance and species richness in the floodplain decreased significantly with depth. Propagule abundance was surprisingly variable in bars, with some displaying extremely high values and others containing no detectable seeds, although overall species richness was significantly lower than in benches and the floodplain. The vertical distribution of seeds in bars, benches and floodplains may be determined by the proportional influence of hydrochory (seed transport and deposition by water) during deposition events and seed losses, resulting from sediment reworking and erosion, set within the timescales over which they are formed and reworked. Bar seed banks are continually flushed by frequent inundation and reworking, especially at the surface, reducing seed deposition and burial. Abundant seed fall may be provided by local vegetation, however. Diverse seed banks in benches may form through alternating periods of hydrochoric seed deposition along with sediment, augmented during periods of exposure when propagules from the extant vegetation accumulate. Decreases in germinable propagule abundance and species richness with depth in the floodplain may reflect much slower rates of vertical accretion and seed losses due to mortality over time. Finally, we present some implications for the management of riparian vegetation and applications for river restoration.

For rivers degraded by erosion and channel widening, the re‐establishment of riparian vegetation is essential. We assess the potential for riparian seed banks to facilitate natural channel contraction through the regeneration of plants involved in the biogeomorphic succession of three discrete geomorphic units of increasing age and height above the channel bed: bars, benches and floodplain. Standing vegetation upon each unit type was surveyed for four river reaches in the Hunter catchment of eastern Australia. Seed bank composition was determined using seedling emergence techniques on sediment sampled from the units. We compared species richness and composition, and longevity, growth form and seed dispersal mechanisms between the standing vegetation and seed bank species. The seed bank was similar across bars, benches and floodplain, containing mostly perennial pioneer herbs, sedges and rushes, dispersed by wind and hydrochory (water transport). While bar vegetation was similar to the seed bank, bench and floodplain vegetation included later successional species such as shrubs and trees, significantly more grasses and vines (benches: χ25, N = 402 = 102.033, p < 0.001; floodplain: χ25, N = 792 = 30.324, p < 0.001) and higher proportions of unassisted and animal‐dispersed seeds (benches: χ25, N = 352 = 89.409, p < 0.001; floodplain: χ25, N = 338 = 56.026, p < 0.001). The results suggest that seed banks may support early stages of biogeomorphic succession, via regeneration of pioneer plants. However, plants, such as shrubs and trees that are observed upon units of increasing age and height above the channel bed (i.e. benches and floodplain), are likely sourced from transient seeds produced by local vegetation, rather than seed banks. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.