Land use is a cornerstone of human civilization, but also intrinsically linked to many global sustainability challenges-from climate change to food security to the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Understanding the underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers of land-use change, and how they play out in different environmental, socio-economic and cultural contexts, is therefore important for identifying effective policies to successfully address these challenges. In this regard, much can be learned from studying long-term land-use change. We examined the evolution of European land management over the past 200 years with the aim of identifying (1) key episodes of changes in land management, and (2) their underlying technological, institutional and economic drivers. To do so, we generated narratives elaborating on the drivers of land use-change at the country level for 28 countries in Europe. We qualitatively grouped drivers into land-management regimes, and compared changes in management regimes across Europe. Our results allowed discerning seven land-management regimes, and highlighted marked heterogeneity regarding the types of management regimes occurring in a particular country, the timing and prevalence of regimes, and the conditions that result in observed bifurcations. However, we also found strong similarities across countries in the timing of certain landmanagement regime shifts, often in relation to institutional reforms (e.g., changes in EU agrarian policies or the emergence and collapse of the Soviet land management paradigm) or to technological innovations (e.g., drainage pipes, tillage and harvesting machinery, motorization, and synthetic fertilizers). Land reforms frequently triggered changes in land management, and the location and timing of reforms had substantial impacts on land-use outcomes. Finally, forest protection policies and voluntary cooperatives were important drivers of land-management changes. Overall, our results demonstrate that land-system changes should not be conceived as unidirectional developments following predefined trajectories, but rather as path-dependent processes that may be affected by various drivers, including sudden events.

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Scenario-based exercises can contribute to policy debates on climate change responses, intended to help policy-makers visualize future worlds and help guide and develop adaptive strategies. This study explores the use of scenarios by policy-advisors within three institutions: the European Environment Agency, the European Commission and Scottish public bodies. Respondents pointed to different approaches to scenario identifi cation and use as well as barriers to wider use of the method. A range of benefi ts of using scenarios was highlighted. Amongst the suggestions for better implementation offered by interviewees was the need for a scenario toolkit. An array of scenario systems (representing both climate change scenarios and socio-economic scenarios) are being used by policy-advisors and the paper concludes that the role for scenario exercises in planning and communications work derives from their capacity to develop imaginative thinking. Recommendations are proposed for improving practice.implications of situations on the basis of large amounts of information in a systematic way, and in so doing may also expose fl aws in reasoning, or bias (Lempert et al., 2003). Weaknesses in the use of a number of scenarios identifi ed by Parson et al. (2007) include insuffi cient focus on the needs of a particular audience, inconsistent assumptions and exclusion of relevant information. J. Bryson et al.such as political and institutional aspects of decision-making, or whether scenario-based exercises have a role in testing the robustness of policy decisions.

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