Increasing temperatures associated with climate change may generate phenological mismatches that disrupt previously synchronous trophic interactions. Most work on mismatch has focused on temporal trends, whereas spatial variation in the degree of trophic synchrony has largely been neglected, even though the degree to which mismatch varies in space has implications for meso-scale population dynamics and evolution. Here we quantify latitudinal trends in phenological mismatch, using phenological data on an oak-caterpillar-bird system from across the UK. Increasing latitude delays phenology of all species, but more so for oak, resulting in a shorter interval between leaf emergence and peak caterpillar biomass at northern locations. Asynchrony found between peak caterpillar biomass and peak nestling demand of blue tits, great tits and pied flycatchers increases in earlier (warm) springs. There is no evidence of spatial variation in the timing of peak nestling demand relative to peak caterpillar biomass for any species. Phenological mismatch alone is thus unlikely to explain spatial variation in population trends. Given projections of continued spring warming, we predict that temperate forest birds will become increasingly mismatched with peak caterpillar timing. Latitudinal invariance in the direction of mismatch may act as a double-edged sword that presents no opportunities for spatial buffering from the effects of mismatch on population size, but generates spatially consistent directional selection on timing, which could facilitate rapid evolutionary change.
Background: The Bornean banteng (Bos javanicus lowi) is an endangered subspecies that often inhabits logged forest; however very little is known about the effects of logging on their ecology, despite the differing effects this has on other ungulate species. A body condition scoring system was created for the Bornean banteng using camera trap photographs from five forests in Sabah, Malaysia, with various past and present management combinations to establish if banteng nutrition suffered as a result of forest disturbance. Results: One hundred and eleven individuals were photographed over 38,009 camera trap nights from April 2011 to June 2014 in five forests. Banteng within forests that had a recent history of reduced-impact logging had higher body condition scores than banteng within conventionally logged forest. Conversely, when past logging was conducted using a conventional technique and the period of forest regeneration was relatively long; the banteng had higher body condition scores. Conclusion: The body condition scoring system is appropriate for monitoring the long-term nutrition of the Bornean banteng and for evaluating the extent of the impact caused by present-day reduced-impact logging methods. Reduced-impact logging techniques give rise to individuals with the higher body condition scores in the shorter term, which then decline over time. In contrast the trend is opposite for conventional logging, which demonstrates the complex effects of logging on banteng body condition scores. This is likely to be due to differences in regeneration between forests that have been previously logged using differing methods.
Local weather can influence the growth and development of young birds either indirectly, by modifying prey availability, or directly, by affecting energetic trade‐offs. Such effects can have lasting implications for life history traits, but the nature of these effets may vary with the developmental stage of the birds, and over timescales from days to weeks. We examined the interactive effects of temperature, rainfall and wind speed on the mass of nestling and fledgling Barn Swallows Hirundo rustica both on the day of capture and averaging weather across the time since hatching. At the daily timescale, nestling mass was negatively correlated with temperature, but the strength of this association depended on the level of rainfall and wind speed; nestlings were typically heavier on dry or windy days, and the negative effect of temperature was strongest under calm or wet conditions. At the early lifetime timescale (i.e. from hatching to pre‐fledging), nestling mass was negatively correlated with temperature at low wind speed. Fledgling body mass was less sensitive to weather; the only weather effect evident was a negative correlation with temperature at the daily scale under high rainfall that became slightly positive under low rainfall. These changes are consistent with weather effects on the availability and distribution of insects within the landscape (e.g. causing high concentrations of flying insects) and with the effects of weather variation on nest microclimate. These results together demonstrate the impacts of weather on chick growth, over immediate (daily) and longer term (nestling/fledgling lifetime) timescales. This shows that sensitivity to local weather conditions varies across the early lifetime of young birds (nestling–fledgling stages) and illustrates the mechanisms by which larger scale (climate) variations influence the body condition of individuals.
Ecosystems transition quickly in the Anthropocene, whereas biodiversity adapts more slowly. Here we simulated a shifting woodland ecosystem on the Colorado Plateau of western North America by using as its proxy over space and time the fundamental niche of the Arizona black rattlesnake (Crotalus cerberus). We found an expansive (= end-of-Pleistocene) range that contracted sharply (= present), but is blocked topographically by Grand Canyon/Colorado River as it shifts predictably northwestward under moderate climate change (= 2080). Vulnerability to contemporary wildfire was quantified from available records, with forested area reduced more than 27% over 13 years. Both ‘ecosystem metrics' underscore how climate and wildfire are rapidly converting the Plateau ecosystem into novel habitat. To gauge potential effects on C. cerberus, we derived a series of relevant ‘conservation metrics' (i.e. genetic variability, dispersal capacity, effective population size) by sequencing 118 individuals across 846 bp of mitochondrial (mt)DNA-ATPase8/6. We identified five significantly different clades (net sequence divergence = 2.2%) isolated by drainage/topography, with low dispersal (FST = 0.82) and small sizes (2Nef = 5.2). Our compiled metrics (i.e. small-populations, topographic-isolation, low-dispersal versus conserved-niche, vulnerable-ecosystem, dispersal barriers) underscore the susceptibility of this woodland specialist to a climate and wildfire tandem. We offer adaptive management scenarios that may counterbalance these metrics and avoid the extirpation of this and other highly specialized, relictual woodland clades.
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