This report is one in a series of Electrification Futures Study (EFS) publications. The EFS is a multi-year research project to explore potential widespread electrification in the future energy system of the United States. Electrification is defined as the substitution of electricity for direct combustion of non-electricity-based fuels (e.g., gasoline and natural gas) used to provide similar services.The EFS is specifically designed to examine electric technology advancement and adoption for end uses in all major economic sectors as well as electricity consumption growth and load profiles, future power system infrastructure development and operations, and the economic and environmental implications of electrification. Because of the expansive scope and the multi-year duration of the study, research findings and supporting data will be published as a series of reports, with each report released on its own timeframe. The table below shows the various research topics planned for examination under the EFS and how this report fits with the other components of the study. Topic Relation to this Report Electric technology cost and performance projections Provides technology data used in this report (Jadun et al. 2017) Electrification demand-side adoption scenarios This report Electric system supply-side scenarios Relies on electricity consumption reported in this report Electricity consumption patterns Relies on technology adoption projections reported in this report Electric system operations Relies on the consumption patterns and supplyside scenarios from other reports, which rely on data from this report Impacts assessment Relies on the technology adoption projections in this report along with data from other reportsThis report is the second publication in this series and presents scenarios of electric end-use technology adoption and resulting electricity consumption in the United States. The scenarios reflect a wide range of electricity demand growth through 2050 that result from various electric technology adoption and efficiency projections in the transportation, residential and commercial buildings, and industrial sectors. The report describes the methodology, assumptions, and limitations of the analysis. The demand scenarios provided in this report will be used to inform the supply scenarios and impacts to be presented in future reports under the EFS project. Results from the current demand-side scenarios can also be used by other researchers who wish to explore implications of electrification and demand growth in the U.S. economy.More information, the supporting data associated with this report, links to other reports in the EFS study, and information about the broader study are available at www.nrel.gov/efs. vi
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Printed on paper containing at least 50% wastepaper, including 10% post consumer waste.iii About JISEAThe Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA) conducts interdisciplinary researchrealized through teams drawn from the founding partners and a network of national and global affiliates-and provides objective and credible data, tools, and analysis to guide global energy investment and policy decisions. JISEA is focused on providing leading analysis; guiding decisions on energy, investment, and policy; and answering questions that enable a cost-effective transition to sustainable energy at significant speed and scale, while minimizing unintended impacts.JISEA is operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC, on behalf of the U.S. Department of Energy's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the University of Colorado-Boulder, the Colorado School of Mines, the Colorado State University, the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Stanford University. Each institution brings a unique set of capabilities to the partnership.Learn more at JISEA.org. iv ForewordWe are very pleased to present this work on natural gas and the transformation of the United States' power sector. The subject is both highly topical and divisive. Very few people saw the dramatic changes coming that are being witnessed in the U.S. natural gas sector. The critical role of unconventional gas-and specifically, shale gas-has been dramatic. The changes taking place in the U.S. natural gas sector go well beyond the boundaries of traditional energy-sector analysis. They touch on areas as diverse as foreign policy and industrial competitiveness.This makes the topic ripe for robust analytical work, which is the role of the Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA).To help inform both the national and international dialogue on this subject, we have focused on a few key areas critical to decision makers. These issues include greenhouse gas emissions, regulatory interventions, water management, and the portfolio of generation in the power sector.As part of our series of studies on the U.S. energy system, this body of work continues to elucidate details related to life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of shale gas relative to other options for power generation. It also contributes new analysis related to water and regulatory frameworks that are evolving apace. Additionally, we evaluate various pathways for the evolution of the electric sector given a range of options for natural gas, other technologies, and policy.Although the four principal areas of focus in this report are closely interrelated, each has its own specific needs in terms of analysis, investment risk, and policy design. We have presented detailed consideration of each area, with further appended supporting material, to contribute to the ongoing and increasing national and international dialogue.We hope you enjoy the report and find the results and discussion useful for your work. Douglas J. Arent Executive Director, JISEA v PrefaceThis report was developed...
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