Nitrogen (N) is a key input to food production. Nearly half of N fertilizer input is not used by crops and is lost into the environment via emission of gases or by polluting water bodies. It is essential to achieve production levels, which enable global food security, without compromising environmental security. The N pollution level expected by 2050 is projected to be 150% higher than in 2010, with the agricultural sector accounting for 60% of this increase. In this paper, we review the status of the pollution from N fertilizers worldwide and make recommendations to address the situation. The analysis reviews the relationship between N fertilizer use, N use efficiency, no-point pollution, the role of farmer management practices, and policy approaches to address diffuse pollution caused by N fertilization. Several studies show a lack of information as one of the main hurdles to achieve changes in habits. The objective of this study is to highlight the gravity of the current global non-point pollution as well as the need for a communication effort to make farmers aware of the relationship between their activity and N pollution and, therefore, the importance of their fertilizer management practices.

Farmers in the developed world tend to over-apply fertilizer, and we explore a model for decision-making under uncertainty in yields. This article proposes an agro-economic model for farmer decision-making based on subjective expected yield and crop response to fertilization. The model explores subjective yield probability distributions that are both better suited to subjective crop yields than the previously proposed probability distribution and is easier to extract from farmers. The model allows the analysis of the impact of changes in fertilizer price and variance of expected yields. The model result is consistent with observed farmer behavior based on the rule of “fertilizing for the good years” that appears, according to our model, as rational and consistent with expected profit maximization under yield uncertainty since the cost of over-application is lower than that of the opportunity cost of under-application. The goal of increasing the efficiency of nitrogen use requires both technical innovation and an expansion of the knowledge on the socioeconomic factors underlying excessive crop fertilization that must be improved both to meet future food demands and to prevent environmental degradation and climate change.

Aim of study: To analyse the diffusion of the crop by producing forecast models, that intend to help farmers in their decision-making. Area of study: Spain. The area dedicated to pistachio cultivation in Spain has multiplied by 36 in the period 2010 to 2020, reaching 44,244 ha. Material and methods: This study brings together data on the evolution of pistachio cultivation based on the following parameters: cultivated area, yield, and price. Methods are based on internal, external influence models and on an influence-price-crop yield pattern. Main results: The results indicate that given a constant crop yield, raising pistachio prices, will bring a production increase that generate the saturation level of the system. Similarly, with a constant pistachio price and an increment of the crop yield, the saturation level of the system increases. Regarding the pattern of influence, it is shown that in a context of suitable market prices for pistachio and an optimal synergy of the production factors that favour the crop yield not only increases the level of saturation of the system but also the duration of the diffusion process. Research highlights: The diffusion curve is sigmoidal with a well-defined inflection point and three well-defined phases. The adoption of pistachio in Spain responds to a model of internal influence (logistic) and never to models of external influence. According to the results, the process has a zero-innovation effect, while the dynamics of the process is completely determined by an imitation effect.

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This paper explores the impacts of water pricing as a demand management policy, at a regional level (or basin-sector). To this aim, a hydro-economic model for the Guadalquivir River basin (southern Spain) is proposed here. This basin constitutes a perfect example of a Mediterranean basin subject to frequent and long drought periods, where challenges related to water scarcity are increasing, leading to social conflicts among water users. Moreover, this basin is characterised by a closure state meaning that all available water resources are already allocated among users. In this context, water pricing policy may act as an effective tool to reduce water demand by encouraging changes of behaviour in water users. In particular, those who perform irrigation practices in the agricultural sector. This paper focuses on the irrigation sector since it is the main water user in the basin (87%). Additionally, alternative water-availability scenarios have been used to test the effect of water pricing under drought conditions. The hydro-economic model presented here has been sectorized into four basin sectors with common characteristics (hydro and economic). This enables the analysis of alternative price scenarios in the agricultural sector, in terms of water used, crop patterns and gross margin. Results show that water pricing policy should consider the regional characteristics at the basin-sector scale to gain effectiveness and equity at the river basin scale. Moreover, it has been found that both water availability and the crop pattern at the basin-sector scale have an effect on the reduction of water used (and therefore in gross margin.