Summary 1. Understanding the interaction among predators and between predation and climate is critical to understanding the mechanisms for compensatory mortality. We used data from 1999 radio‐marked neonatal elk (Cervus elaphus) calves from 12 populations in the north‐western United States to test for effects of predation on neonatal survival, and whether predation interacted with climate to render mortality compensatory. 2. Weibull survival models with a random effect for each population were fit as a function of the number of predator species in a community (3–5), seven indices of climatic variability, sex, birth date, birth weight, and all interactions between climate and predators. Cumulative incidence functions (CIF) were used to test whether the effects of individual species of predators were additive or compensatory. 3. Neonatal elk survival to 3 months declined following hotter previous summers and increased with higher May precipitation, especially in areas with wolves and/or grizzly bears. Mortality hazards were significantly lower in systems with only coyotes (Canis latrans), cougars (Puma concolor) and black bears (Ursus americanus) compared to higher mortality hazards experienced with gray wolves (Canis lupus) and grizzly bears (Ursus horribilis). 4. In systems with wolves and grizzly bears, mortality by cougars decreased, and predation by bears was the dominant cause of neonatal mortality. Only bear predation appeared additive and occurred earlier than other predators, which may render later mortality by other predators compensatory as calves age. Wolf predation was low and most likely a compensatory source of mortality for neonatal elk calves. 5. Functional redundancy and interspecific competition among predators may combine with the effects of climate on vulnerability to predation to drive compensatory mortality of neonatal elk calves. The exception was the evidence for additive bear predation. These results suggest that effects of predation by recovering wolves on neonatal elk survival, a contentious issue for management of elk populations, may be less important than the composition of the predator community. Future studies would benefit by synthesizing overwinter calf and adult‐survival data sets, ideally from experimental studies, to test the roles of predation in annual compensatory and additive mortality of elk.

The realized impact of a vital rate on population growth (k) is determined by both the relative influence of the vital rate on k (elasticity) and its magnitude of variability. We estimated mean survival and reproductive rates in elk (Cervus elaphus) and spatial and temporal variation in these rates from 37 sources located primarily across the Rocky Mountain region and northwestern United States. We removed sampling variance from estimates of process variance both within and across vital-rate data sets using the variance discounting method developed by White (2000). Deterministic elasticities calculated from a population matrix model parameterized with these mean vital rates ranked adult female survival (e Scow ¼ 0.869) much higher than calf survival (e Scalf ¼ 0.131). However, process variance in calf survival (r 2 Scalf ¼ 0.039) was .11 times greater than process variance in female survival (r 2 Scow ¼ 0.003) across data sets and 10 times greater on average (r 2 Scalf ¼ 0.020;r 2 Scow ¼ 0.002) within studies. We conducted Life-Stage Simulation Analysis to incorporate both vital-rate elasticity patterns and empirical estimates of variability to identify those vital rates most influential in elk population dynamics. The overwhelming magnitude of variation in calf survival explained 75% of the variation in the population growth rates generated from 1,000 matrix replicates, compared to just 16% of the variation in k explained by variation in female survival. Variation in calf survival greatly impacts elk population growth and calls into question the utility of classical elasticity analysis alone for guiding elk management. These results also suggest that the majority of interannual variability that wildlife managers document in late-winter and spring elk surveys is attributable to variation in calf survival over the previous year and less influenced by variation in the harvest of females during the preceding autumn. To meet elk population size objectives, managers should consider the inherent variation in calf survival, and its apparent sensitivity to management, in addition to female harvest. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 71(3): 795-803; 2007)

We investigated survival, reproduction, and population growth (l) for a declining elk (Cervus canadensis nelsoni) population in South Dakota, USA, 2011-2015. We obtained survival data from 125 calves and 34 yearlings. We determined survival and pregnancy rates for 42 adults (2-8 years old) and 39 old adults (!8 years old). We combined population vital rates into a matrix model, which indicated a slightly growing population but with considerable uncertainty ( l ¼ 1.03, 95% CI ¼ 0.93-1.13). Our elasticity analysis suggested asymptotic growth rates were most sensitive to proportional changes in old adult and adult female survival, followed by proportional changes in calf and yearling survival. Our life-stage simulation analysis further supported asymptotic growth rates being most sensitive to variation in survival, and most of the variation in l we observed was a consequence of variation in annual calf survival (R 2 ¼ 0.58). Annual calf survival was low (0.26, 95% CI ¼ 0.05-0.52), and puma (Puma concolor) predation was the primary causespecific mortality factor of calves (0.63, 95% CI ¼ 0.51-0.76). Adult female survival was near its biological maximum (0.95, 95% CI ¼ 0.87-0.99); therefore, managing for increased calf survival may be the most practical strategy for promoting elk population growth in this system. Managing this puma population at the lower end of the population objective and reducing white-tailed deer (Odocoileous virginianus) numbers (primary prey source) may allow for elk population growth in this system. Ó 2017 The Wildlife Society.

Summary Conserving viable large carnivore populations requires managing their interactions with humans in increasingly anthropogenic landscapes. Faced with declining budgets and escalating wildlife conflicts, agencies in North America continue to grapple with uncertainty surrounding the efficacy of socially divisive management actions such as harvest to reduce conflict. We used multistate capture–reencounter methods to estimate cause‐specific mortality for a large sample (>3500) of American black bears Ursus americanus in north‐western New Jersey, USA over a 33‐year period. Specifically, we focused on factors that might influence the probability of bears being harvested, lethally managed, or dying from other causes. We further analysed temporal correlations between >26 000 human–black bear incidents reported between 2001 and 2013 and estimates of total mortality rates, and specifically, rates of harvest from newly implemented public hunts and lethal management. Adult females were twice as likely (0·163 ± 0·014) as adult males (0·087 ± 0·012) to be harvested during the study period. Cubs (0·444 ± 0·025) and yearlings (0·372 ± 0·022) had a higher probability of dying from other causes, primarily vehicle strikes, than adults (0·199 ± 0·008). Reports of nuisance behaviours in year t + 1 declined with increasing mortality resulting from harvest plus lethal management in year t (P = 0·028, R2 = 0·338). Adult bears previously designated as a nuisance and/or threat were more likely to be harvested (0·176 ± 0·025) than those never identified as a problem (0·109 ± 0·010). Across age classes, individuals assigned problem status, were significantly more likely to be lethally controlled. Synthesis and applications. Given continuing failures in conserving exploited carnivores, their recreational harvest and lethal management remain polarizing. Within this social‐ecological system, the well‐regulated harvest of carefully monitored black bear populations represents a pragmatic approach to achieve population objectives. Furthermore, the integration of harvest and incident‐response management (both lethal and non‐lethal practices) with educational programmes aimed at reducing anthropogenic attractants can result in subsequent reductions in problem behaviours reported.

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