Cross-lagged models are by far the most commonly used method to test the prospective effect of one construct on another, yet there are no guidelines for interpreting the size of cross-lagged effects. This research aims to establish empirical benchmarks for cross-lagged effects, focusing on the cross-lagged panel model (CLPM) and the random intercept cross-lagged panel model (RI-CLPM). We drew a quasirepresentative sample of studies published in four subfields of psychology (i.e., developmental, social-personality, clinical, and industrial-organizational). The dataset included 1,028 effect sizes for the CLPM and 302 effect sizes for the RI-CLPM, based on data from 174 samples. For the CLPM, the 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the distribution corresponded to cross-lagged effect sizes of .03, .07, and .12, respectively. For the RI-CLPM, the corresponding values were .02, .05, and .11. Effect sizes did not differ significantly between the CLPM and RI-CLPM. Moreover, effect sizes did not differ significantly across subfields and were not moderated by design characteristics. However, effect sizes were moderated by the concurrent correlation between the constructs and the stability of the predictor. Based on the findings, we propose to use .03 (small effect), .07 (medium effect), and .12 (large effect) as benchmark values when interpreting the size of cross-lagged effects, for both the CLPM and RI-CLPM. In addition to aiding in the interpretation of results, the present findings will help researchers plan studies by providing information needed to conduct power analyses and estimate minimally required sample sizes.

Previous research has not led to any agreement as to the normative trajectory of relationship satisfaction. In this systematic review and meta-analysis, we summarize the available evidence on development of relationship satisfaction, as a function of age and relationship duration. Data came from 165 independent samples including 165,039 participants. In the analyses, we examined cross-sectional information on mean level, that is, the percent-of-maximum-possible (POMP) score at the first assessment, and longitudinal information on mean change (i.e., change in POMP scores per year). The mean age associated with effect sizes ranged from 20 to 76 years and the mean relationship duration from 3 months to 46 years. Results on mean levels indicated that relationship satisfaction decreased from age 20 to 40, reached a low point at age 40, then increased until age 65, and plateaued in late adulthood. As regards the metric of relationship duration, relationship satisfaction decreased during the first 10 years of the relationship, reached a low point at 10 years, increased until 20 years, and then decreased again. Results on mean change indicated that relationship satisfaction decreased within a given relationship, with the largest declines in young adulthood and in the first years of a relationship. Moderator analyses suggested that presence of children and measure of relationship satisfaction explained variance in the mean level. Except for these two moderators, the pattern of findings held across characteristics such as birth cohort, sample type, country, ethnicity, gender, household shared with partner, marital status, relationship transitions, and dyadic data. Public Significance StatementThis systematic review and meta-analysis provides a robust picture of normative development of relationship satisfaction across the life span, focusing on the role of age and relationship duration in describing this pattern. On average, results indicated both decreases and increases in relationship satisfaction across the life span, but trajectories differed systematically between the time metrics. Specifically, the findings showed a U-shaped trend for age and a more complex, dynamic pattern for relationship duration.

It is well established that goals energize and direct behaviour across the lifespan. To better understand how goals are embedded in people's lives across adulthood, the present research examined life goals' content (health, personal growth, prosocial engagement, social relations, status, work), dynamics (interplay between goal importance and goal attainability), and outcomes (subjective well‐being) from a developmental perspective. We argue that people rate those goals as important and attainable that enable them to master developmental tasks, that they adapt their goals to personal capacities, and that goals predict subjective well‐being after 2 and 4 years. The sample included 973 individuals (18–92 years old, M = 43.00 years) of whom 637 participated 2 years later and 573 participated 4 years later. Goal importance and well‐being were assessed at all occasions and goal attainability at the first two occasions. Results indicated that age was negatively associated with importance and attainability of personal‐growth, status, and work goals but positively associated with importance and attainability of prosocial‐engagement goals. The association between goal importance and attainability was largely bidirectional over time; and goal attainability, rather than goal importance, was positively linked to later well‐being. Implications of these findings are discussed in light of adult lifespan development. © 2019 European Association of Personality Psychology

To date, most explanations of adult social development within the field of psychology assume universal age-related processes. The majority of these explanations, however, stem from studies on a limited number of cohorts that were socialized in specific social contexts. As a consequence, the current knowledge on adult social development confounds age-related and contextual influences. We argue that it is essential to disentangle these influences to better understand adult social development. In this article, we apply the theoretical framework of developmental contextualism and provide explanations for adult social development that are firmly based on the sociohistorical context that a cohort experienced during young adulthood. This hypothesis is discussed with the example of romantic relationships. We argue that the relatively strong value that today's older adults ascribe to close social ties might be rooted in experiences of limited life-path options, existential concerns, and stressful historical events (i.e., Great Depression, World War II, postwar era) during their young-adult years. Today's young adults, conversely, are socialized in rapidly changing social structures with increasing diversity in life-path options and in relative security with regard to basic material and security needs. We explore how these experiences might shape the future social development of today's young adults with respect to relationship contexts (e.g., living arrangements, digitalization) and relationship needs (e.g., exploration, self-actualization). We conclude with theoretical and methodological recommendations for future research that will be amply equipped to systematically investigate both age-related and contextual influences that drive development in any previous, present, and forthcoming cohort. Public Significance StatementThis article combines existing theoretical perspectives to disentangle sociohistorical and age-related effects on adult social development. We discuss how the sociohistorical contexts in which young adults have been socialized shape their social development throughout adulthood. We argue that the relatively strong value that today's older adults ascribe to close social ties are rooted in their experiences of limited life-path options, existential concerns, and stressful sociohistorical events in their young adulthood. In contrast, today's young adults in industrialized societies are socialized in rapidly changing social structures with increasing diversity in life-path options and in relative security with regard to basic material and security needs. Such modernization processes are associated with increasing variation in pathways to adult roles as well as with shifts in attitudes, needs, and norms.

Loneliness describes a perceived deficiency in quantitative or qualitative aspects of individuals’ social relationships. Whereas the health-related consequences of loneliness are well-documented, surprisingly little is known about its interpersonal features and its consequences for relationship outcomes. In the present study, we investigated the association between loneliness and relationship experiences in partner relationships with a sample of 937 individuals from 480 mixed-sex couples. By employing actor-partner interdependence models and dyadic cross-lagged moderated multilevel models, we found higher loneliness to be robustly related to (a) lower relationship satisfaction for both oneself and the partner, (b) more self-reported, but not partner-reported conflicts, (c) lower average levels of one’s own, but not the partner’s closeness, and (d) less own self-disclosure. In contrast, loneliness was not associated with (a) sexual contact frequency, (b) average levels of physical affection, or (c) the daily dynamics between closeness and self-disclosure/physical affection. Thus, the results of the present study indicated that loneliness is primarily associated with the perception of the partner relationship but not its rather objective features or daily dynamics.