SummaryBackgroundUnderweight, overweight, and obesity in childhood and adolescence are associated with adverse health consequences throughout the life-course. Our aim was to estimate worldwide trends in mean body-mass index (BMI) and a comprehensive set of BMI categories that cover underweight to obesity in children and adolescents, and to compare trends with those of adults.MethodsWe pooled 2416 population-based studies with measurements of height and weight on 128·9 million participants aged 5 years and older, including 31·5 million aged 5–19 years. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2016 in 200 countries for mean BMI and for prevalence of BMI in the following categories for children and adolescents aged 5–19 years: more than 2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference for children and adolescents (referred to as moderate and severe underweight hereafter), 2 SD to more than 1 SD below the median (mild underweight), 1 SD below the median to 1 SD above the median (healthy weight), more than 1 SD to 2 SD above the median (overweight but not obese), and more than 2 SD above the median (obesity).FindingsRegional change in age-standardised mean BMI in girls from 1975 to 2016 ranged from virtually no change (−0·01 kg/m2 per decade; 95% credible interval −0·42 to 0·39, posterior probability [PP] of the observed decrease being a true decrease=0·5098) in eastern Europe to an increase of 1·00 kg/m2 per decade (0·69–1·35, PP>0·9999) in central Latin America and an increase of 0·95 kg/m2 per decade (0·64–1·25, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. The range for boys was from a non-significant increase of 0·09 kg/m2 per decade (−0·33 to 0·49, PP=0·6926) in eastern Europe to an increase of 0·77 kg/m2 per decade (0·50–1·06, PP>0·9999) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Trends in mean BMI have recently flattened in northwestern Europe and the high-income English-speaking and Asia-Pacific regions for both sexes, southwestern Europe for boys, and central and Andean Latin America for girls. By contrast, the rise in BMI has accelerated in east and south Asia for both sexes, and southeast Asia for boys. Global age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 0·7% (0·4–1·2) in 1975 to 5·6% (4·8–6·5) in 2016 in girls, and from 0·9% (0·5–1·3) in 1975 to 7·8% (6·7–9·1) in 2016 in boys; the prevalence of moderate and severe underweight decreased from 9·2% (6·0–12·9) in 1975 to 8·4% (6·8–10·1) in 2016 in girls and from 14·8% (10·4–19·5) in 1975 to 12·4% (10·3–14·5) in 2016 in boys. Prevalence of moderate and severe underweight was highest in India, at 22·7% (16·7–29·6) among girls and 30·7% (23·5–38·0) among boys. Prevalence of obesity was more than 30% in girls in Nauru, the Cook Islands, and Palau; and boys in the Cook Islands, Nauru, Palau, Niue, and American Samoa in 2016. Prevalence of obesity was about 20% or more in several countries in Polynesia and Micronesia, the Middle East and north Africa, the Caribbean, and the USA. In 2016, 75 (44–117) million girls and 117 (70–178) million boys wor...

SummaryBackgroundRaised blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases and chronic kidney disease. We estimated worldwide trends in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of, and number of people with, raised blood pressure, defined as systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg or higher or diastolic blood pressure of 90 mm Hg or higher.MethodsFor this analysis, we pooled national, subnational, or community population-based studies that had measured blood pressure in adults aged 18 years and older. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1975 to 2015 in mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure, and the prevalence of raised blood pressure for 200 countries. We calculated the contributions of changes in prevalence versus population growth and ageing to the increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure.FindingsWe pooled 1479 studies that had measured the blood pressures of 19·1 million adults. Global age-standardised mean systolic blood pressure in 2015 was 127·0 mm Hg (95% credible interval 125·7–128·3) in men and 122·3 mm Hg (121·0–123·6) in women; age-standardised mean diastolic blood pressure was 78·7 mm Hg (77·9–79·5) for men and 76·7 mm Hg (75·9–77·6) for women. Global age-standardised prevalence of raised blood pressure was 24·1% (21·4–27·1) in men and 20·1% (17·8–22·5) in women in 2015. Mean systolic and mean diastolic blood pressure decreased substantially from 1975 to 2015 in high-income western and Asia Pacific countries, moving these countries from having some of the highest worldwide blood pressure in 1975 to the lowest in 2015. Mean blood pressure also decreased in women in central and eastern Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and, more recently, central Asia, Middle East, and north Africa, but the estimated trends in these super-regions had larger uncertainty than in high-income super-regions. By contrast, mean blood pressure might have increased in east and southeast Asia, south Asia, Oceania, and sub-Saharan Africa. In 2015, central and eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, and south Asia had the highest blood pressure levels. Prevalence of raised blood pressure decreased in high-income and some middle-income countries; it remained unchanged elsewhere. The number of adults with raised blood pressure increased from 594 million in 1975 to 1·13 billion in 2015, with the increase largely in low-income and middle-income countries. The global increase in the number of adults with raised blood pressure is a net effect of increase due to population growth and ageing, and decrease due to declining age-specific prevalence.InterpretationDuring the past four decades, the highest worldwide blood pressure levels have shifted from high-income countries to low-income countries in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa due to opposite trends, while blood pressure has been persistently high in central and eastern Europe.FundingWellcome Trust.

SummaryBackgroundProjections of future mortality and life expectancy are needed to plan for health and social services and pensions. Our aim was to forecast national age-specific mortality and life expectancy using an approach that takes into account the uncertainty related to the choice of forecasting model.MethodsWe developed an ensemble of 21 forecasting models, all of which probabilistically contributed towards the final projections. We applied this approach to project age-specific mortality to 2030 in 35 industrialised countries with high-quality vital statistics data. We used age-specific death rates to calculate life expectancy at birth and at age 65 years, and probability of dying before age 70 years, with life table methods.FindingsLife expectancy is projected to increase in all 35 countries with a probability of at least 65% for women and 85% for men. There is a 90% probability that life expectancy at birth among South Korean women in 2030 will be higher than 86·7 years, the same as the highest worldwide life expectancy in 2012, and a 57% probability that it will be higher than 90 years. Projected female life expectancy in South Korea is followed by those in France, Spain, and Japan. There is a greater than 95% probability that life expectancy at birth among men in South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland will surpass 80 years in 2030, and a greater than 27% probability that it will surpass 85 years. Of the countries studied, the USA, Japan, Sweden, Greece, Macedonia, and Serbia have some of the lowest projected life expectancy gains for both men and women. The female life expectancy advantage over men is likely to shrink by 2030 in every country except Mexico, where female life expectancy is predicted to increase more than male life expectancy, and in Chile, France, and Greece where the two sexes will see similar gains. More than half of the projected gains in life expectancy at birth in women will be due to enhanced longevity above age 65 years.InterpretationThere is more than a 50% probability that by 2030, national female life expectancy will break the 90 year barrier, a level that was deemed unattainable by some at the turn of the 21st century. Our projections show continued increases in longevity, and the need for careful planning for health and social services and pensions.FundingUK Medical Research Council and US Environmental Protection Agency.

People in all but about 20 countries have a higher risk of dying prematurely from a noncommunicable disease (NCD) than from infectious and parasitic diseases, maternal and perinatal conditions, and nutritional deficiencies combined. The risk of dying from an NCD is highest in low-and middle-income countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa for both sexes and in central Asia and eastern Europe for men. Progress towards Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target 3.4 is markedly different across countries. At current rates of decline in NCD mortality, SDG target 3.4 is expected to be met for women in 35 countries (19% of all countries) and men in 30 countries (16%). Most of these are high-income countries with already-low NCD mortality and countries in central and eastern Europe. A further 50 countries (for women) and 35 countries (for men) would achieve the target with a modest acceleration of decline. Mortality from the four NCDs included in SDG target 3.4 has stagnated or increased since 2010 among women and men in 15 and 24 countries, respectively. Another 86 countries (for women) and 97 (for men) are progressing too slowly, and need to implement policies that significantly increase the rates of decline, if they are to meet SDG target 3.4. NCD deaths beyond the age range and causes of death included in SDG target 3.4 cause a larger mortality burden in low-and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Health policies should address NCDs beyond the causes and age groups covered in SDG target 3.4, so as to "leave no one behind". Substantial reduction of NCD mortality requires policies that significantly reduce tobacco and alcohol use and blood pressure levels, and provide access to efficacious and high-quality preventive and curative care for NCDs in the context of UHC. 86 countries (46%) for women and 97 (52%) for men need the implementation of policies that significantly increase the rates of decline. Mortality from the four NCDs included in SDG target 3.4 has stagnated or increased since 2010 among women and men in 15 (8%) and 24 (13%) countries, respectively. NCD causes and age groups other than those included in the SDG target 3.4 are responsible for a higher risk of death in low-and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. For countries to substantially reduce NCD mortality requires policies that significantly reduce tobacco and alcohol use and blood pressure levels, and provide efficacious and high-quality preventive and curative care for NCDs, including timely diagnosis and treatment of hypertension, diabetes, and treatment-amenable cancers, and treatment pathways that improve the survival of those with acute and chronic NCDs.

Representational difference analysis was used to search for pathogens in multiple sclerosis brains. We detected a 341-nucleotide fragment that was 99.4% identical to the major DNA binding protein gene of human herpesvirus 6 (HHV-6). Examination of 86 brain specimens by PCR demonstrated that HHV-6 was present in >70% of MS cases and controls and is thus a commensal virus of the human brain. By DNA sequencing, 36/37 viruses from MS cases and controls were typed as HHV-6 variant B group 2. Other herpesviruses, retroviruses, and measles virus were detected infrequently or not at all. HHV-6 expression was examined by immunocytochemistry with monoclonal antibodies against HHV-6 virion protein 101K and DNA binding protein p41. Nuclear staining of oligodendrocytes was observed in MS cases but not in controls, and in MS cases it was observed around plaques more frequently than in uninvolved white matter. MS cases showed prominent cytoplasmic staining of neurons in gray matter adjacent to plaques, although neurons expressing HHV-6 were also found in certain controls. Since destruction of oligodendrocytes is a hallmark of MS, these studies suggest an association of HHV-6 with the etiology or pathogenesis of MS.Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a disease of young adults that is characterized clinically by a variable relapsing and remitting course and pathologically by the progressive accumulation of plaques of demyelination within the white matter of the central nervous system. In normal white matter, the axons of neurons are surrounded by myelin sheaths, made from the cell membranes of oligodendrocytes. In MS plaques, the myelin sheaths are destroyed, leaving the naked axons intact but impaired in their conduction of action potentials. The currently held view is that an autoimmune inflammatory reaction against components of myelin results in destruction of oligodendrocytes. The demyelinating lesions in MS are found throughout the central nervous system, with a predilection for the periventricular white matter, optic nerve, brainstem, spinal cord, and cerebellum, resulting in a disease that is pleiomorphic in its clinical presentation.In spite of the substantial evidence that autoimmunemediated demyelination plays a major role in the progression of MS, epidemiologic studies suggest that an infectious agent may also be involved (1). Prior reports have suggested that viral infection of cells within the central nervous system may initiate the events leading to focal demyelination (2), and a number of viruses have been implicated in the pathogenesis of MS (3). Despite extensive investigation, however, none of these associations has been confirmed (4), and the issue of viral involvement in the pathogenesis of MS remains unresolved.To search for an MS-associated pathogen, we used representational difference analysis (RDA) (5). In RDA, successive rounds of subtractive hybridization and PCR amplification enriched for DNA sequences that were present in a DNA preparation from diseased tissue (MS brain) but absent from control DNA (n...