The behavior motivation hypothesis was supported in this longitudinal study, but the opposite conclusion (i.e., that higher risk led to less protective behavior) would have been drawn from an incorrect test based only on cross-sectional data. Health researchers should take care in formulating and testing risk-perception-behavior hypotheses.

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Key Points Question What are the prevalence and estimated economic burden of substandard and falsified medicines in low- and middle-income countries? Findings In this systematic review of 265 studies comprising 400 647 drug samples and meta-analysis of 96 studies comprising 67 839 drug samples, the prevalence of substandard and falsified medicines in low- and middle-income countries was 13.6% overall (19.1% for antimalarials and 12.4% for antibiotics). Data on the estimated economic impact were limited primarily to market size and ranged widely from $10 billion to $200 billion. Meaning Substandard and falsified medicines are a substantial health and economic problem; a concerted global effort is needed to secure the global supply chain, increase quality control capacity, and improve surveillance to better assess the problem and identify solutions.

We found some evidence of regression (protective behaviors dropping, after vaccination, to levels reported by the unvaccinated cohort). However, we did not find disinhibition (exceeding the risk taking of the unvaccinated cohort), the greater threat to public health. Although we will not know for several years what effect HPV vaccination has on other behaviors, if any, data on other vaccinations can offer critically important information in the interim.