Article (Accepted Version) http://sro.sussex.ac.uk Archsmith, James, Heyes, Anthony and Saberian, Soodeh (2017) Air quality and error quantity: pollution and performance in a high-skilled, quality-focused occupation.
U.S. programs subsidize electric vehicles (EVs) in part to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We model a suite of life cycle GHG emissions considerations to estimate the GHG abatement potential from switching from an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICE) to an EV in the continental U.S. The GHG intensity of EVs hinges on the electricity and ambient temperature when charged and operated. Both have high spatial and temporal heterogeneity, yet are typically modeled inadequately or overlooked entirely. We calculate marginal emissions, including renewables, for electricity by region and test forecasted grid composition to estimate future performance. Location and timing of charging are important GHG determinants, but temperature effects on EV performance can be equally important. On average, EVs slightly reduce GHGs relative to ICEs, but there are many regions where EVs provide a decisive benefit and others where EVs are significantly worse. The forecasted grid shifts from coal towards renewables, improving EV performance; the GHG benefit per EV in western states is
Household preferences for goods with a bundle of attributes may have complex substitution patterns when one attribute is changed. For example, a household faced with an exogenous increase in the size of one television may choose to decrease the size of other televisions within the home. This paper quantifies the extent of attribute substitution in the context of multi-vehicle households. We deploy a novel identification strategy to examine how an exogenous change in the fuel economy of a kept vehicle affects a household's choice of a second vehicle. We find strong evidence of attribute substitution in the household vehicle portfolio. This effect operates through car attributes that are correlated with fuel economy, including vehicle footprint and weight. Our findings suggest that attribute substitution exerts a strong force that may erode a substantial portion of the expected future gasoline savings from fuel economy standards, particularly those that are attribute-based. Elements of our identification strategy are relevant to a broad class of settings in which consumers make sequential purchases of durable portfolio goods.
Roughly three quarters of vehicles are purchased into multi‐car households. We study whether households are willing to substitute attributes, such as fuel economy, across vehicles within their portfolio. We develop a novel strategy to separately identify idiosyncratic preferences for an attribute from these within‐portfolio effects. Using the universe of household vehicle registration records in California over a 6‐year period, we find that two‐car households exhibit strong substitution across vehicles when faced with an exogenous change to fuel intensity of a kept vehicle. This effect can erode a substantial portion of the benefit from major policies, such as Cash‐for‐Clunkers.
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