summary Objective We investigated the relationship between the molecular weight (MW) distribution of hyaluronan (HA) in synovial fluid (SF) and risk of knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression. Methods HA MW was analyzed for 65 baseline knee SFs. At 3-year follow-up, knees were scored for change in joint space narrowing (JSN), osteophyte (OST) progression, or occurrence of total knee arthroplasty (TKA). HA MW distribution was analyzed using agarose gel electrophoresis (AGE), and its relationship to OA progression was evaluated using logistic regression. The association between HA MW and self-reported baseline knee pain was analyzed using Pearson's correlation coefficients. Results Knee OA was categorized as non-progressing (OST−/JSN−, 26 knees, 40%), or progressing based on OST (OST+/JSN−, 24 knees, 37%), OST and JSN (OST+/JSN+, 7 knees, 11%) or total knee arthroplasty (TKA, 8 knees, 12%). The MW distribution of HA in baseline SFs was significantly associated with the odds of OA progression, particularly for index knees. After adjusting for age, gender, BMI, baseline X-ray grade and pain, each increase of one percentage point in %HA below 1 million significantly increased the odds of JSN (odds ratios (OR) = 1.45, 95% CI 1.02–2.07), TKA or JSN (OR = 1.24, 95%CI 1.01–1.53) and the odds of any progression (OR = 1.16, 95% CI 1.01–1.32). HA MW distribution significantly correlated with pain. Conclusion These data suggest that the odds of knee OA progression increases as HA MW distribution shifts lower and highlight the value of reporting MW distribution rather than just average MW values for HA.

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