Climate change has an impact on increasing the temperature of the earth's surface or what is known as global warming. The impact of global warming will affect the pattern of precipitation, evaporation, water run-off, soil moisture and climate variations which are very volatile can threaten the success of horticultural production, especially shallots. Shallots are a strategic commodity but are strongly influenced by fluctuations in production. The development of shallots is one of them constrained by the weather/climate which affects the production of shallots. From these constraints, shallots are also a commodity that contribute significantly to inflation. Hidden Markov Models (HMM) is one of the stochastic processes when the future only depends on condition now, in markov chain all of the element observable, and the probability move to another probability. Prediction and estimation of shallot crops with rainfall input, temperature, and humidity is done with data starting in 2016 until 2020. Estimated shallot crops follows the optimum movement pattern of prediction shallot in each of each variable. The planting months that are usually carried out in the two districts are around February, May, June and September the lowest shallot crops in April or May because transition of rainy to dry season. And the highest shallot crops in October or November. The best accuracy of estimation is rainfall factor with MAPE 5,89% with high accuracy category while 5,84% in MAPE temperature and in 5,55% in humidity factor in category high.
Indonesia's economy was convener of the sea; however, the poverty of the fishermen is still high enough. The factors of management and utilization of marine fishery resources in order to improve the people's welfare are should be a significant concern. The leading commodities, tuna fish, need to be supported to increase production, processing, distribution system, diversified products. A good marketing and marketing margin distribution should be allocating a fairer on the processed tuna products. The purpose of this research is to analyze the mapping, critical factors that influence, and business value chain improvement strategies processing tuna in Pacitan. Research conducted on agro-industries processing tuna in district of Pacitan, Pacitan Regency, East Java. Sampels used are 4 fishermens, 2 traders, 2 agro-industries, 4 managers, 4 resellers, 4 retailers, and 50 consumers. Data retrieval is performed in February-March 2018. Data are analyzed using the mapping analysis, analysis of the Critical Success Factor (CSF), the analysis of governane, analysis of upgrading. Based on the analysis of the principals involved in agro-industries processing tuna are fishermens, traders, agro-industries, retailers, resellers and consumers. The party receives the smallest profit amounting to Rp 4,000 fishermen/kg. Critical factors according to agro-industries are the taste, price and quality, while the critical factor according to consumers is the taste, quality, expiration date. Factors that have a high gap are 0.49 stock and 0.55 of innovation and 0.73 of expiration. Upgrading of value chain processed tuna is process improvement by increasing production capacity, increasing the role of Marketing Manager for network marketing with branding in the tourism industry so processed tuna products widely known both national and international.
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