Wind power forecast evaluation is of key importance for forecast provider selection, forecast quality control, and model development. While forecasts are most often evaluated based on squared or absolute errors, these error measures do not always adequately reflect the loss functions and true expectations of the forecast user, neither do they provide enough information for the desired evaluation task. Over the last decade, research in forecast verification has intensified, and a number of verification frameworks and diagnostic tools have been proposed.However, the corresponding literature is generally very technical and most often dedicated to forecast model developers. This can make forecast users struggle to select the most appropriate verification tools for their application while not fully appraising subtleties related to their application and interpretation. This paper revisits the most common verification tools from a forecast user perspective and discusses their suitability for different application examples as well as evaluation setup design and significance of evaluation results. KEYWORDS evaluation metrics, forecast evaluation, testing forecast performance, wind power INTRODUCTIONWind power has become an important power source in many power systems. In Europe, it already covers approximately 12% of the total electricity demand. 1 However, variability and limited predictability of its production challenge power systems and markets, making forecasts required for optimal operation (eg, load balancing and maintenance) and trading. A lot of research has been carried out in the development of wind power forecasting models, and a variety of models have been proposed for different applications and types of forecasts. These include deterministic point predictions, probabilistic forecasts of various forms, and multivariate predictions or predictions for specific events such as ramps or gusts, 2 see, eg, Giebel et al 3 for a general state-of-the-art report on wind power forecasting or Kariniotakis 4 for a recent coverage of challenges related to wind power forecasting (and extension to other renewable energy sources).One of the current challenges, which is rarely covered and discussed, is forecast verification, maybe since many believe that verification frameworks are well-established and forecast users are content with their use. Forecast evaluation is crucial for model development, selection of the best forecast provider, or for quality control. Some of its main goals include estimation of future error statistics, comparison of the forecast accuracy of different forecasts, or finding flaws in a certain forecast model. Unfortunately, it is not the case that current knowledge in forecast verification and existing verification frameworks can give us the whole information about objective quality of forecasts and their value to forecast users. The original view on forecast quality and value (inspired by meteorological applications) was laid out in the 1980s by Murphy. 5,6 More recently, this aspect was discussed by L...
Considering the Mediterranean as a region of high evaporation and low precipitation, evaluations of sinks and sources of moisture and precipitation in the Mediterranean basin have been carried out within the frame of the CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment) project. Besides these evaluations, residence time and stagnation/ventilation analyses have been carried out to investigate transport to and from the Mediterranean basin and in the basin itself. A Lagrangian moisture diagnosis method calculating budgets of evaporation minus precipitation was applied to a 5.5 year (October 1999–April 2005) trajectory data set and evaluated for eight representative Mediterranean Regions Of Interest (ROI). The Mediterranean basin has been identified as a major source of moisture and precipitation to the surrounding land area and to the basin itself. Main regions of stagnation, i.e. the Po basin, have been defined on a seasonal basis through residence time analysis. Evaluation of the transport to and from the basin shows that the Mediterranean is a crossroad of airstreams where air enters mainly from the northwest and continues in two separate streams, one going southwest over North Africa into the trade wind zone and the other one to the northeast through Central Asia
Biofuels have become an alternative to fossil fuel, but consequences on human health from changes to emissions compositions are not well understood. By combining information on composition of vehicle exhaust, dispersion models, and relationship between exposure to air contaminants and health, the authors determined expected mortality outcomes in 2 scenarios: a blend of 10% biodiesel and 90% standard diesel (B10) and biodiesel only (B100), for a rural and an urban environment. Vehicle exhaust for both fuel compositions contained lower fine particle mass but higher NO2 levels. Ambient air concentrations in scenario B10 were almost unchanged. In scenario B100, PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <2.5 μm) levels decreased by 4-8% and NO2 levels increased 7-11%. Reduction of PM2.5 is expected to reduce mortality rate by 5 × 10(-6) and 31 × 10(-6) per year, whereas NO2 increase adds 17 × 10(-6) and 30 × 10(-6) to mortality rate for B10 and B100, respectively. Since effects of PM2.5 and NO2 are not independent, a positive net effect is possible.
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