[1] A two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate the dynamics of buoyant, meltwater-rich plumes flowing beneath the ice shelf occupying much of Pine Island Bay, West Antarctica. Recent studies have shown that this ice shelf, along with all others fringing the Amundsen Sea, is thinning rapidly. In the model, both the Coriolis effect and subshelf topography are important in controlling plume dynamics and the spatial distribution of ice melt. Melt is concentrated in a narrow zone within $20 km of the grounding line where steep subshelf slopes and access to warm ambient water allow melt rates to exceed 100 m yr À1 . The plume generated by entrainment of ambient water into the meltwater in these areas is guided by the topography of the ice shelf underside and exits the ice shelf at three distinct outflow locations. Melt rates generated along the course of the plume are higher (approximately 2.5Â) than rates elsewhere. The model suggests that the observed ice shelf thinning rates could have resulted from a hypothetical instantaneous 0.25°C warming of the ambient water entrained by the plume. A context for this value is provided by the 40-year warming trend documented by Jacobs et al.

Abstract. Ice thickness and bedrock topography are essential boundary conditions for numerical modelling of the evolution of the Greenland ice-sheet (GrIS). The datasets currently in use by the majority of GrIS modelling studies are over two decades old and based on data collected from the 1970s and 80s. We use a newer, high-resolution Digital Elevation Model of the GrIS and new temperature and precipitation forcings to drive the Glimmer ice-sheet model offline under steady state, present day climatic conditions. Comparisons are made of ice-sheet geometry between these new datasets and older ones used in the EISMINT-3 exercise. We find that changing to the newer bedrock and ice thickness makes the greatest difference to Greenland ice volume and ice surface extent. When all boundary conditions and forcings are simultaneously changed to the newer datasets the ice-sheet is 33% larger in volume compared with observation and 17% larger than that modelled by EISMINT-3.We performed a tuning exercise to improve the modelled present day ice-sheet. Several solutions were chosen in order to represent improvement in different aspects of the GrIS geometry: ice thickness, ice volume and ice surface extent. We applied these new parameter sets for Glimmer to several future climate scenarios where atmospheric CO 2 concentration was elevated to 400, 560 and 1120 ppmv (compared with 280 ppmv in the control) using a fully coupled General Circulation Model. Collapse of the ice-sheet was found to occur between 400 and 560 ppmv, a threshold substantially lower than previously modelled using the standard EISMINT-3 setup. This work highlights the need to assess carefully boundary conditions and forcings required by Correspondence to: E. J. Stone (emma.j.stone@bristol.ac.uk) ice-sheet models, particularly in terms of the abstractions required for large-scale ice-sheet models, and the implications that these can have on predictions of ice-sheet geometry under past and future climate scenarios.

[1] We present a detailed description of the Glimmer ice sheet model, comprising the physics represented in the model and the numerical techniques used. Established methods are combined with good software design to yield an adaptable and widely applicable model. A flexible framework for coupling Glimmer to global climate forcing is also described. Testing and benchmarking is of crucial importance if the outputs of numerical models are to be regarded as credible; we demonstrate that Glimmer performs very well against the well-known EISMINT benchmarks and against other analytical solutions for ice flow. Glimmer therefore represents a well-founded and flexible framework for the open-source development of ice sheet modeling.

The ''Panama Hypothesis'' states that the gradual closure of the Panama Seaway, between 13 million years ago (13 Ma) and 2.6 Ma, led to decreased mixing of Atlantic and Pacific water Masses, the formation of North Atlantic Deep water and strengthening of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, increased temperatures and evaporation in the North Atlantic, increased precipitation in Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes, culminating in the intensification of Northern Hemisphere Glaciation (NHG) during the Pliocene, 3.2-2.7 Ma. Here we test this hypothesis using a fully coupled, fully dynamic oceanatmosphere general circulation model (GCM) with boundary conditions specific to the Pliocene, and a high resolution dynamic ice sheet model. We carry out two GCM simulations with ''closed'' and ''open'' Panama Seaways, and use the simulated climatologies to force the ice sheet model. We find that the models support the ''Panama Hypothesis'' in as much as the closure of the seaway results in a more intense Atlantic thermohaline circulation, enhanced precipitation over Greenland and North America, and ultimately larger ice sheets. However, the volume difference between the ice sheets in the ''closed'' and ''open'' configurations is small, equivalent to about 5 cm of sea level. We conclude that although the closure of the Panama Seaway may have slightly enhanced or advanced the onset of NHG, it was not a major forcing mechanism. Future work must fully couple the ice sheet model and GCM, and investigate the role of orbital and CO 2 effects in controlling NHG.