E xperiences from previous influenza pandemics, in particular the 2009-10 pandemic, have demonstrated that we cannot expect to contain geographically the next influenza pandemic in the location it emerges, nor can we expect to prevent international spread of infection for more than a short period. Vaccines are not expected to be available during the early stage of the next pandemic (1), and stockpiles of antiviral drugs will be limited, mostly reserved for treating more severe illnesses and for patients at higher risk for influenza complications. Therefore, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), such as social distancing (2), will be heavily relied on by health authorities to slow influenza transmission in the community, with 3 desired outcomes (Figure). The first outcome would be to delay the timing of the peak of infections to buy time for preparations in the healthcare system, the second to reduce the size of the epidemic peak so that the healthcare system is not overwhelmed, and the third to spread infections over a longer time period, enabling better management of those cases and the potential for vaccines to be used at least later in the epidemic to reduce impact. Influenza virus infections are believed to spread mainly through close contact in the community (e.g., homes, workplaces, preschool and day care centers, schools, public places), and more frequent and intense contact among children has a particularly major role in transmission (5). Social distancing measures aim to reduce the frequency of contact and increase physical distance between persons, thereby reducing the risks of person-to-person transmission. These measures have played a role in mitigating previous pandemics, including the 1918-19 pandemic (6,7), and are a key part of current pandemic preparedness plans (3,4). Although a clear biological and epidemiologic rationale supports the potential effectiveness of social distancing measures, there are few opportunities for rigorous controlled trials of community interventions against influenza. Our objective was to review the evidence base for social distancing measures, focusing on the evidence supporting the effectiveness of these measures in reducing influenza transmission in the community. Methods and Results We conducted separate systematic reviews to gather available evidence on the effectiveness of 6 measures in reducing influenza transmission in the community: isolating ill persons; contact tracing; quarantining exposed persons; school dismissals or closures; workplace measures, including workplace closures; and
F rom time to time, novel influenza A virus strains emerge and cause global influenza pandemics (1). Pandemics occurred 3 times in the 20th century and 1 time so far in the 21st century (2). The recognition that influenza pandemics can have substantial social and economic effects in addition to the impact on public health, along with the emergence of highly pathogenic strains of avian influenza virus in the past 20 years, has stimulated greater attention in preparing for future influenza pandemics (3,4). Given the delays in the availability of specific vaccines and limited supplies of antiviral drugs, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) form a major part of pandemic plans (2). A range of NPIs can be applied at international, national, and local levels, with the objectives of delaying the arrival of infected persons, slowing the spread of infection, delaying the epidemic peak, and reducing the size of the peak (5). This article focuses on the use of measures related to international travel, including entry and exit screening of travelers for infection, travel restrictions, and border closures (Table 1). We aimed to review the evidence base assessing the effectiveness of these travel-related NPIs against pandemic influenza and to identify the barriers to implementation of these interventions. Methods and Results We searched for literature reporting or estimating the effectiveness of NPIs related to international travel and movement, including entry and exit screening travelers, travel restrictions, and border closures on pandemic or interpandemic influenza. We conducted literature searches on PubMed, Medline, Embase, and Cochrane Library for peer-reviewed articles published from January 1, 1946, through April 28, 2019. The search terms used were identified from relevant systematic reviews and research reports (8,9). We collected additional studies from secondary references from included studies or other relevant searches. Articles were eligible for inclusion if they reported or estimated the effectiveness of international travel-related NPIs for pandemic influenza using quantitative indicators such as delaying the introduction of infection, delaying the epidemic peak, or reducing the size of the peak. We excluded
Background.A number of enhanced influenza vaccines have been developed for use in older adults, including high-dose, MF59-adjuvanted, and intradermal vaccines.Methods. We conducted a systematic review examining the improvements in antibody responses measured by the hemagglutination inhibition assay associated with these enhanced vaccines, compared with each other and with the standard-dose (SD) vaccine using random effects models.Results. Thirty-nine trials were included. Compared with adults aged ≥60 years receiving SD vaccines, those receiving enhanced vaccines had significantly higher postvaccination titers (for all vaccine strains) and higher proportions with elevated titers ≥40 (for most vaccine strains). High-dose vaccine elicited 82% higher postvaccination titer to A(H3N2) compared with SD vaccine; this was significantly higher than the 52% estimated for MF59-adjuvanted versus SD vaccines (P = .04), which was higher than the 32% estimated for intradermal versus SD vaccines (P < .01).Conclusions. Overall, by summarizing current evidence, we found that enhanced vaccines had greater antibody responses than the SD vaccine. Indications of differences among enhanced vaccines highlight the fact that further research is needed to compare new vaccine options, especially during seasons with mismatched circulating strains and for immune outcomes other than hemagglutination inhibition titers as well as vaccine efficacy.
We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.
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