Abstract. Massive amounts of anthropogenic radiocaesium 137Cs that were released into the environment by the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in March 2011 are widely known to have extensively migrated to Pacific Ocean sediment off of eastern Japan. Several recent reports have stated that the sedimentary 137Cs is now stable with a remarkably heterogeneous distribution. The present study elucidates ocean dynamic processes causing this heterogeneous sedimentary 137Cs distribution in and around the shelf off Fukushima and adjacent prefectures. We performed a numerical simulation of oceanic 137Cs behaviour for about 10 months after the accident, using a comprehensive dynamic model involving advection–diffusion transport in seawater, adsorption and desorption to and from particulate matter, sedimentation and suspension on and from the bottom, and vertical diffusion transport in the sediment. A notable simulated result was that the sedimentary 137Cs significantly accumulated in a swath just offshore of the shelf break (along the 50–100 m isobath) as in recent observations, although the seabed in the entire simulation domain was assumed to have ideal properties such as identical bulk density, uniform porosity, and aggregation of particles with a single grain diameter. This result indicated that the heterogeneous sedimentary 137Cs distribution was not necessarily a result of the spatial distribution of 137Cs sediment adsorptivity. The present simulation suggests that the shape of the swath is mainly associated with spatiotemporal variation between bottom shear stress in the shallow shelf (< 50 m depths) and that offshore of the shelf break. In a large part of the shallow shelf, the simulation indicated that strong bottom friction suspending particulate matter from the seabed frequently occurred via a periodic spring tide about every 2 weeks and via occasional strong wind. The sedimentary 137Cs thereby could hardly stay on the surface of the seabed with the result that the simulated sediment-surface 137Cs activity tended to decrease steadily for a long term after the initial 137Cs migration. By contrast, in the offshore region, neither the spring tide nor the strong wind caused bottom disturbance. Hence, the particulate matter incorporated with 137Cs, which was horizontally transported from the adjacent shallow shelf, readily settled and remained on the surface of the sediment just offshore of the shelf break.
Climate-related disasters are a serious problem in Asia. Advances in the understanding of meteorology and in the development of monitoring and forecasting systems have enhanced early warning systems, contributing immensely to reducing fatalities resulting from typhoons, cyclones, and floods. The frequency of extreme events causing water-related disasters has increased, however, over the last decade and may grow in the future due to anthropogenic activity. The sections that follow introduce two recent efforts in hydrologic projection in Asia.
Time-slice ensemble experiments using a high-resolution (T106) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) on the earth simulator revealed changes in the South Asian summer monsoon resulting from climate change. Model results under global warming conditions suggest increases in mean and extreme precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon. increases generally attributed to greater atmospheric moisture content. a thermodynamic change. Dynamic changes limit the intensification of mean precipitation. Enhanced extreme precipitation over land in South Asia arises from dynamic rather than thermodynamic changes. The impact of global warming on heavy precipitation features and flood risks in the Tama River basin in Japan is addressed using 12 atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs). Multi-model ensemble average 200-year quantiles in Tokyo from 2050 to 2300 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario climate conditions were 1.07-1.20 times greater than that under present climate conditions. A 200-year quantile extreme event in the present occurs in much shorter return periods in the A1B scenario. High-water discharge in the basin rose by 10%-26% and flood volume increased by 46%-131% for precipitation in a 200-year return period. The risk of flooding in the basin is thus, even though the increase of extreme precipitation is not substantial, projected to be much higher than that presently estimated.
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