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There is a rapidly expanding literature on the in vitro antiviral activity of drugs that may be repurposed for therapy or chemoprophylaxis against severe acute respiratory syndrome‐coronavirus 2 (SARS‐CoV‐2). However, this has not been accompanied by a comprehensive evaluation of the target plasma and lung concentrations of these drugs following approved dosing in humans. Accordingly, concentration 90% (EC90) values recalculated from in vitro anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 activity data was expressed as a ratio to the achievable maximum plasma concentration (Cmax) at an approved dose in humans (Cmax/EC90 ratio). Only 14 of the 56 analyzed drugs achieved a Cmax/EC90 ratio above 1. A more in‐depth assessment demonstrated that only nitazoxanide, nelfinavir, tipranavir (ritonavir‐boosted), and sulfadoxine achieved plasma concentrations above their reported anti‐SARS‐CoV‐2 activity across their entire approved dosing interval. An unbound lung to plasma tissue partition coefficient (KpUlung) was also simulated to derive a lung Cmax/half‐maximal effective concentration (EC50) as a better indicator of potential human efficacy. Hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, mefloquine, atazanavir (ritonavir‐boosted), tipranavir (ritonavir‐boosted), ivermectin, azithromycin, and lopinavir (ritonavir‐boosted) were all predicted to achieve lung concentrations over 10‐fold higher than their reported EC50. Nitazoxanide and sulfadoxine also exceeded their reported EC50 by 7.8‐fold and 1.5‐fold in lung, respectively. This analysis may be used to select potential candidates for further clinical testing, while deprioritizing compounds unlikely to attain target concentrations for antiviral activity. Future studies should focus on EC90 values and discuss findings in the context of achievable exposures in humans, especially within target compartments, such as the lungs, in order to maximize the potential for success of proposed human clinical trials.

Objectives AGILE is a Phase Ib/IIa platform for rapidly evaluating COVID-19 treatments. In this trial (NCT04746183) we evaluated the safety and optimal dose of molnupiravir in participants with early symptomatic infection. Methods We undertook a dose-escalating, open-label, randomized-controlled (standard-of-care) Bayesian adaptive Phase I trial at the Royal Liverpool and Broadgreen Clinical Research Facility. Participants (adult outpatients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection within 5 days of symptom onset) were randomized 2:1 in groups of 6 participants to 300, 600 and 800 mg doses of molnupiravir orally, twice daily for 5 days or control. A dose was judged unsafe if the probability of 30% or greater dose-limiting toxicity (the primary outcome) over controls was 25% or greater. Secondary outcomes included safety, clinical progression, pharmacokinetics and virological responses. Results Of 103 participants screened, 18 participants were enrolled between 17 July and 30 October 2020. Molnupiravir was well tolerated at 300, 600 and 800 mg doses with no serious or severe adverse events. Overall, 4 of 4 (100%), 4 of 4 (100%) and 1 of 4 (25%) of the participants receiving 300, 600 and 800 mg molnupiravir, respectively, and 5 of 6 (83%) controls, had at least one adverse event, all of which were mild (≤grade 2). The probability of ≥30% excess toxicity over controls at 800 mg was estimated at 0.9%. Conclusions Molnupiravir was safe and well tolerated; a dose of 800 mg twice daily for 5 days was recommended for Phase II evaluation.

The results from this evaluation demonstrate the utility of PBPK methodology for the prediction of human pharmacokinetics. This methodology can be applied at different stages to enhance the understanding of the compounds in a particular chemical series, guide experiments, aid candidate selection and inform clinical trial design.

Our findings of more rapid sputum sterilization and similar toxicity with higher rifampin doses support investigation of increased rifampin doses to shorten tuberculosis treatment. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 01408914) .