Fish and other ectotherms living in warmer waters often grow faster as juveniles, mature earlier, but become smaller adults. Known as the temperature-size rule (TSR), this pattern is commonly attributed to higher metabolism in warmer waters, leaving fewer resources for growth. An alternative explanation focuses on growth and reproduction trade-offs across temperatures. We tested these hypotheses by measuring growth, maturation, metabolism and reproductive allocation from zebrafish populations kept at 26 and 30°C across six generations. Zebrafish growth and maturation followed TSR expectations but were not explained by baseline metabolic rate, which converged between temperature treatments after a few generations. Rather, we found that females at 30°C allocated more to reproduction, especially when maturing at the smallest sizes. We show that elevated temperatures do not necessarily increase baseline metabolism if sufficient acclimation is allowed and call for an urgent revision of modelling assumptions used to predict population and ecosystem responses to warming.

Global warming and fisheries harvest are significantly impacting wild fish stocks, yet their interactive influence on population resilience to stress remains unclear. We explored these interactive effects on early-life development and survival by experimentally manipulating the thermal and harvest regimes in 18 zebrafish (Danio rerio) populations over six consecutive generations. Warming advanced development rates across generations, but after three generations, it caused a sudden and large (30–50%) decline in recruitment. This warming impact was most severe in populations where size-selective harvesting reduced the average size of spawners. We then explored whether our observed recruitment decline could be explained by changes in egg size, early egg and larval survival, population sex ratio, and developmental costs. We found that it was most likely driven by temperature-induced shifts in embryonic development rate and fishing-induced male-biased sex ratios. Importantly, once harvest and warming were relaxed, recruitment rates rapidly recovered. Our study suggests that the effects of warming and fishing could have strong impacts on wild stock recruitment, but this may take several generations to manifest. However, resilience of wild populations may be higher if fishing preserves sufficient body size diversity, and windows of suitable temperature periodically occur.

Social-ecological systems dependent on fisheries must be resilient or adapt to remain viable in the face of change. Here, we identified possible interventions (termed “adaptation options”) from published literature, aimed at supporting social or ecological resilience and/or aiding adaptation to changes induced by environmental or social stressors. Our searches centered on nations/regions across North America, Europe, and the South Pacific, encompassing fisheries literature with and without a climate change focus, to compare how, when, and by whom interventions are currently or potentially implemented. We expected that adaptation options within a climate change context would have a greater focus on enhancing social resilience due to a connection with climate change adaptation assessment methodology. Instead, we found a greater focus on ecological resilience, likely indicating a focus on management adaptation. This pattern, along with the more extensive use of social adaptation options responsively and outside the context of climate change, along with an importance in bottom-up influences in implementing them, suggests a general lack of centralized planning and organization with regards to adaptation of stakeholders. Determining how adaptation options are created, chosen, and implemented is a crucial step within or external to ecosystem-based management, especially if planned stakeholder adaption is the goal.

No abstract

Common carp (Cyprinus carpio; hereafter carp) is a highly invasive freshwater fish that has colonised river basins across the world causing ecological degradation. In regulated rivers, restoration of natural flow regimes to rehabilitate aquatic ecosystems is a primary focus of environmental management, yet some actions (e.g., environmental water delivery or artificial floodplain inundations) may have unintended consequences including favouring carp. We developed a stochastic population model to represent carp population responses to hydrology and management actions. The model uses current understanding of carp life history, including different survival rates of early life-stages for a range of habitat types, to estimate population responses to various flow/inundation scenarios. Using case studies from two major regions of a large, regulated dryland river, we demonstrate that large natural floods and prolonged droughts accounted for the greatest amplitude of projected carp population increases and declines, respectively. Within-channel flow pulses and small floods, which are a primary focus of environmental flows, appeared to have little influence on long-term carp population trajectories. Artificial inundations generated by floodplain infrastructure, however, caused significant carp recruitment compared to baseline scenarios. Large natural floodplain inundations also maintained high carp biomasses and thus likely high impacts on natural ecological values. The carp population model captures the response of carp to flows and artificial floodplain inundation and will inform environmental managers on the likely trade-offs between achieving restoration of natural ecological values and suppressing a globally invasive fish.