Lakes have played a critical role in providing water and ecosystem services for people and other organisms in China for millennia. However, accelerating climate change and economic boom have resulted in unprecedented changes in these valuable lakes. Using Landsat images covering the entity of the country, we explored the changes in China’s lakes and the associated driving forces over the last 30 years (i.e., mid-1980s to 2015). We discovered that China’s lakes have changed with divergent regional trends: in the sparsely populated Tibetan Plateau, lakes are abundant, and the lake area has increased dramatically from 38,596 km2 to 46,831 km2 (i.e., increased by 8235 km2, or 21.3%), whereas in the densely populated northern and eastern regions, lakes are relatively scarce, and the lake area has decreased from 36,659 km2 to 33,657 km2 (i.e., decreased by 3002 km2, or 8.2%). In particular, severe lake decreases occurred in the Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau and the Eastern Plain (–2151 km2). Statistical analyses indicated that climate was the most important factor controlling lake changes in the Tibetan Plateau, the Yun-Gui Plateau and the Northeast Plain. However, the strength of climatic control on lake changes was low in the Eastern Plain and the Mongolia-Xinjiang Plateau, where human activities, e.g., impoldering, irrigation, and mining, have caused serious impacts on lakes. Further lake changes will exacerbate regional imbalances between lake resources and population distribution and thus may increase the risk of water resource crises in China.

No abstract

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is one of the most common communicable diseases in China, and current climate change had been recognized as a significant contributor. Nevertheless, no reliable models have been put forward to predict the dynamics of HFMD cases based on short-term weather variations. The present study aimed to examine the association between weather factors and HFMD, and to explore the accuracy of seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model with local weather conditions in forecasting HFMD. Weather and HFMD data from 2009 to 2014 in Huainan, China, were used. Poisson regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was applied to examine the relationship between weather factors and HFMD. The forecasting model for HFMD was performed by using the SARIMA model. The results showed that temperature rise was significantly associated with an elevated risk of HFMD. Yet, no correlations between relative humidity, barometric pressure and rainfall, and HFMD were observed. SARIMA models with temperature variable fitted HFMD data better than the model without it (sR increased, while the BIC decreased), and the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 0) offered the best fit for HFMD data. In addition, compared with females and nursery children, males and scattered children may be more suitable for using SARIMA model to predict the number of HFMD cases and it has high precision. In conclusion, high temperature could increase the risk of contracting HFMD. SARIMA model with temperature variable can effectively improve its forecast accuracy, which can provide valuable information for the policy makers and public health to construct a best-fitting model and optimize HFMD prevention.

The HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) has been increasing at an alarming rate in most areas of China in recent years. Many Chinese MSM still lack sufficient access to HIV prevention services, despite ongoing scale-up of comprehensive HIV testing and intervention services. The purpose of this study was to investigate utilization of HIV testing and prevention services, and related factors that influence the MSM people to access HIV test or other services to prevent HIV among MSM in Beijing, China.Three successive cross-sectional surveys of MSM were conducted in Beijing from September 2009 to January 2010, September 2010 to January 2011, and September 2011 to January 2012. Demographic and behavioral data were collected and analyzed. Blood samples were tested for HIV and syphilis. Three models were established to analyze factors associated with HIV testing and preventive services.Of the 1312 participants, prevalence of HIV and syphilis was 7.9% and 15.4%, respectively. Sixty-nine percent ever had an HIV test, 56.2%, 78.7%, and 46.1% received HIV test, free condom/lubricants, and sexually transmitted infection services in the past 12 months (P12M), respectively. MSM with larger social networks and who knew someone infected with HIV were more likely to receive HIV testing and preventive services; lower degrees of stigma and discriminatory attitudes toward HIV/AIDS were positively associated with having an HIV test, whereas unprotected anal intercourse in the past 6 months (P6M) was associated with less preventive services participation. The most reported barriers to HIV testing were fear of testing HIV positive (79.3%) and perceiving no risk for HIV (75.4%). Almost all participants felt that ensuring confidentiality would encourage more MSM to have an HIV test. The two main reasons for not seeking HIV test was not knowing where to go for a test (63.2%) and perceiving low risk of HIV infection (55.1%).Given a high prevalence of HIV, syphilis, and risky behaviors and a relatively low HIV testing rate among MSM in Beijing, more efforts are urgently needed to address barriers to HIV testing and improve accessibility of prevention services.