BACKGROUND Major issues in the implementation of screening for lung cancer by means of low-dose computed tomography (CT) are the definition of a positive result and the management of lung nodules detected on the scans. We conducted a population-based prospective study to determine factors predicting the probability that lung nodules detected on the first screening low-dose CT scans are malignant or will be found to be malignant on follow-up. METHODS We analyzed data from two cohorts of participants undergoing low-dose CT screening. The development data set included participants in the Pan-Canadian Early Detection of Lung Cancer Study (PanCan). The validation data set included participants involved in chemoprevention trials at the British Columbia Cancer Agency (BCCA), sponsored by the U.S. National Cancer Institute. The final outcomes of all nodules of any size that were detected on baseline low-dose CT scans were tracked. Parsimonious and fuller multivariable logistic-regression models were prepared to estimate the probability of lung cancer. RESULTS In the PanCan data set, 1871 persons had 7008 nodules, of which 102 were malignant, and in the BCCA data set, 1090 persons had 5021 nodules, of which 42 were malignant. Among persons with nodules, the rates of cancer in the two data sets were 5.5% and 3.7%, respectively. Predictors of cancer in the model included older age, female sex, family history of lung cancer, emphysema, larger nodule size, location of the nodule in the upper lobe, part-solid nodule type, lower nodule count, and spiculation. Our final parsimonious and full models showed excellent discrimination and calibration, with areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve of more than 0.90, even for nodules that were 10 mm or smaller in the validation set. CONCLUSIONS Predictive tools based on patient and nodule characteristics can be used to accurately estimate the probability that lung nodules detected on baseline screening low-dose CT scans are malignant. (Funded by the Terry Fox Research Institute and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00751660.)

Background and Purpose-The National Institutes of Health (NIH) estimates that stroke costs now exceed $45 billion per year.Stroke is the third leading cause of death and one of the leading causes of adult disability in North America, Europe, and Asia. A number of well-designed randomized stroke trials and case series have now been reported in the literature to evaluate the safety and efficacy of thrombolytic therapy for the treatment of acute ischemic stroke. These stroke trials have included intravenous studies, intra-arterial studies, and combinations of both, as well as use of mechanical devices for removal of thromboemboli and of neuroprotectant drugs, alone or in combination with thrombolytic therapy. At this time, the only therapy demonstrated to improve outcomes from an acute stroke is thrombolysis of the clot responsible for the ischemic event.There is room for improvement in stroke lysis studies. Divergent criteria, with disparate reporting standards and definitions, have made direct comparisons between stroke trials difficult to compare and contrast in terms of overall patient outcomes and efficacy of treatment. There is a need for more uniform definitions of multiple variables such as collateral flow, degree of recanalization, assessment of perfusion, and infarct size.In addition, there are multiple unanswered questions that require further investigation, in particular, questions as to which patients are best treated with thrombolysis. One of the most important predictors of clinical success is time to treatment, with early treatment of Ͻ3 hours for intravenous tissue plasminogen activator and Ͻ6 hours for intra-arterial thrombolysis demonstrating significant improvement in terms of 90-day clinical outcome and reduced cerebral hemorrhage. It is possible that improved imaging that identifies the ischemic penumbra and distinguishes it from irreversibly infarcted tissue will more accurately select patients for therapy than duration of symptoms. There are additional problems in the assessment of patients eligible for thrombolysis. These include being able to predict whether a particular site of occlusion can be successfully revascularized, predict an individual patient's prognosis and outcome after revascularization, and in particular, to predict the development of intracerebral hemorrhage, with and without clinical deterioration. It is not clear to assume that achieving immediate flow restoration due to thrombolytic therapy implies clinical success and improved outcome. There is no simple correlation between recanalization and observed clinical benefit in all ischemic stroke patients, because other interactive variables, such as collateral circulation, the ischemic penumbra, lesion location and extent, time to treatment, and hemorrhagic conversion, are all interrelated to outcome. Methods-This article was written under the auspices of the Technology Assessment Committees for both the AmericanSociety of Interventional and Therapeutic Neuroradiology and the Society of Interventional Radiology. The purpose ...

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