Many "complex" human diseases, which involve multiple genetic and environmental determinants, have increased in incidence during the past 2 decades. During the same time period, considerable effort and expense have been expended in whole-genome screens aimed at detection of genetic loci contributing to the susceptibility to complex human diseases. However, the success of positional cloning attempts based on whole-genome screens has been limited, and many of the fundamental questions relating to the genetic epidemiology of complex human disease remain unanswered. Both to review the success of the positional cloning paradigm as applied to complex human disease and to investigate the characteristics of the whole-genome scans undertaken to date, we created a database of 101 studies of complex human disease, which were found by a systematic Medline search (current as of December 2000). We compared these studies, concerning 31 different human complex diseases, with regard to design, methods, and results. The "significance" categorizations proposed by Lander and Kruglyak were used as criteria for the "success" of a study. Most (66.3% [n=67]) of the studies did not show "significant" linkage when the criteria of Lander and Kruglyak (1995) were used, and the results of studies of the same disease were often inconsistent. Our analyses suggest that no single study design consistently produces more-significant results. Multivariate analysis suggests that the only factors independently associated with increased study success are (a) an increase in the number of individuals studied and (b) study of a sample drawn from only one ethnic group. Positional cloning based on whole-genome screens in complex human disease has proved more difficult than originally had been envisioned; detection of linkage and positional cloning of specific disease-susceptibility loci remains elusive.
Summary Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest—namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial—ENTHUSE M1—in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0·791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0·743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3·32, 95% CI 2·39–4·62, p<0·0001; reference model: 2·56, 1·85–3·53, p<0·0001). The new model was validated further on the ENTHUSE M1 cohort with similarly high performance (iAUC 0·768). Meta-analysis across all methods confirmed previously identified...
Our results suggest that endometriosis is associated with elevated levels of sphingomyelins and phosphatidylcholines, which might contribute to the suppression of apoptosis and affect lipid-associated signalling pathways. Our findings suggest novel potential routes for therapy by specifically blocking highly up-regulated isoforms of phosphpolipase A2 and lysophosphatidylcholine acyltransferase 4.
A thyroid cancer ultrasonography screening for all residents 18 years old or younger living in the Fukushima prefecture started in October 2011 to investigate the possible effect of the radiological contamination after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accidents as of March 12 to 15, 2011. Thyroid cancer in 184 cases was reported by February 2017. The question arises to which extent those cancer cases are a biological consequence of the radiation exposure or an artefactual result of the intense screening of a large population.Experiences with the Chernobyl accident suggest that the external dose may be considered a valid surrogate for the internal dose of the thyroid gland. We, therefore, calculated the average external effective dose-rate (μSv/h) for the 59 municipalities of the Fukushima prefecture based on published data of air and soil radiation. We further determined the municipality-specific absolute numbers of thyroid cancers found by each of the two screening rounds in the corresponding municipality-specific exposed person-time observed. A possible association between the radiation exposure and the thyroid cancer detection rate was analyzed with Poisson regression assuming Poisson distributed thyroid cancer cases in the exposed person-time observed per municipality.The target populations consisted of 367,674 and 381,286 children and adolescents for the 1st and the 2nd screening rounds, respectively. In the 1st screening, 300,476 persons participated and 270,489 in the 2nd round. From October 2011 to March 2016, a total of 184 cancer cases were found in 1,079,786 person-years counted from the onset of the exposure to the corresponding examination periods in the municipalities. A significant association between the external effective dose-rate and the thyroid cancer detection rate exists: detection rate ratio (DRR) per μSv/h 1.065 (1.013, 1.119). Restricting the analysis to the 53 municipalities that received less than 2 μSv/h, and which represent 176 of the total 184 cancer cases, the association appears to be considerably stronger: DRR per μSv/h 1.555 (1.096, 2.206).The average radiation dose-rates in the 59 municipalities of the Fukushima prefecture in June 2011 and the corresponding thyroid cancer detection rates in the period October 2011 to March 2016 show statistically significant relationships.
Long-term effects of ultraviolet (UV) radiation on flavonoid biosynthesis were investigated in Arabidopsis thaliana using the sun simulators of the Helmholtz Zentrum München. The plants, which are widely used as a model system, were grown (1) at high photosynthetically active radiation (PAR; 1,310 micromol m(-2) s(-1)) and high biologically effective UV irradiation (UV-B(BE) 180 mW m(-2)) during a whole vegetative growth period. Under this irradiation regime, the levels of quercetin products were distinctively elevated with increasing UV-B irradiance. (2) Cultivation at high PAR (1,270 micromol m(-2) s(-1)) and low UV-B (UV-B(BE) 25 mW m(-2)) resulted in somewhat lower levels of quercetin products compared to the high-UV-B(BE) conditions, and only a slight increase with increasing UV-B irradiance was observed. On the other hand, when the plants were grown (3) at low PAR (540 micromol m(-2) s(-1)) and high UV-B (UV-B(BE) 180 mW m(-2)), the accumulation of quercetin products strongly increased from very low levels with increasing amounts of UV-B but the accumulation of kaempferol derivatives and sinapoyl glucose was less pronounced. We conclude (4) that the accumulation of quercetin products triggered by PAR leads to a basic UV protection that is further increased by UV-B radiation. Based on our data, (5) a combined effect of PAR and different spectral sections of UV radiation is satisfactorily described by a biological weighting function, which again emphasizes the additional role of UV-A (315-400 nm) in UV action on A. thaliana.
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