Background: The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is rapidly rising and has a 5-year survival rate of <20%. Beyond TNM (tumorenodeemetastasis) staging, no reliable risk stratification tools exist and no large-scale studies have profiled circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) at relapse in EAC. Here we analyze the prognostic potential of ctDNA dynamics in EAC, taking into account clonal hematopoiesis with indeterminate potential (CHIP). Patients and methods: A total of 245 samples from 97 patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy and surgery were identified from the prospective national UK Oesophageal Cancer Clinical and Molecular Stratification (OCCAMS) consortium data set. A pan-cancer ctDNA panel comprising 77 genes was used. Plasma and peripheral blood cell samples were sequenced to a mean depth of 7082Â (range 2196-28 524) and ctDNA results correlated with survival. Results: Characteristics of the 97 patients identified were as follows: 83/97 (86%) male, median age 68 years (SD 9.5 years), 100% cT3/T4, 75% cNþ. EAC-specific drivers had higher variant allele fractions than passenger mutations. Using stringent quality criteria 16/79 (20%) were ctDNA positive following resection; recurrence was observed in 12/16 (75%) of these. As much as 78/97 (80%) had CHIP analyses that enabled filtering for CHIP variants, which were found in 18/78 (23%) of cases. When CHIP was excluded, 10/63 (16%) patients were ctDNA positive and 9/10 of these (90%) recurred. With correction for CHIP, median cancer-specific survival for ctDNA-positive patients was 10.0 months versus 29.9 months for ctDNA-negative patients (hazard ratio 5.55, 95% confidence interval 2.42-12.71; P ¼ 0.0003). Similar outcomes were observed for disease-free survival. Conclusions: We demonstrate in a large, national, prospectively collected data set that ctDNA in plasma following surgery for EAC is prognostic for relapse. Inclusion of peripheral blood cell samples can reduce or eliminate false positives from CHIP. In future, post-operative ctDNA could be used to risk stratify patients into high-and low-risk groups for intensification or de-escalation of adjuvant chemotherapy.

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Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) provides an ideal case study to characterize large-scale rearrangements. Using whole genome short-read sequencing of 383 cases, for which 214 had matched whole transcriptomes, we observed structural variations (SV) with a predominance of deletions, tandem duplications and inter-chromosome junctions that could be identified as LINE-1 mobile element (ME) insertions. Complex clusters of rearrangements resembling breakage-fusion-bridge cycles or extrachromosomal circular DNA accounted for 22% of complex SVs affecting known oncogenes. Counting SV events affecting known driver genes substantially increased the recurrence rates of these drivers. After excluding fragile sites, we identified 51 candidate new drivers in genomic regions disrupted by SVs, including ETV5, KAT6B and CLTC. RUNX1 was the most recurrently altered gene (24%), with many deletions inactivating the RUNT domain but preserved the reading frame, suggesting an altered protein product. These findings underscore the importance of identification of SV events in OAC with implications for targeted therapies.