Atmospheric rivers (ARs) as massive and concentrated water vapour paths can have a critical impact on extreme events in arid and semi-arid areas. This study investigated the effect of ARs on heavy precipitation events during the cold, rainy months (November–April) in Iran for 11 years. The results showed that 107 ARs had an influence on heavy precipitation, which providing partial moisture for Iran's precipitation. On average, 11 heavy precipitation days were linked to the presence of ARs in the six cold months of each year. During the study period, ARs accounted for almost 20–50% of the country's total heavy precipitation monthly. Although most ARs entered the country from the south through coastal areas, the western part of Iran, especially elevated stations along the western slope of the Zagros Mountains, received the highest heavy precipitation. Accordingly, about 66% of ARs directly originated from the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. Moreover, December experienced the highest frequency of ARs linked to heavy precipitation during the statistical period.
Abstract. Flood is known as one of the most distractive natural disaster worldwide. Therefore, its prediction is of great importance from the socio-economical point of view. Despite the great improvement in computational techniques and numerical weather prediction approaches, so far, in Iran, an acceptable flood prediction method has not yet been introduced. The main aim of this study is to recognize and classify the patterns of synoptic systems leading to torrential rainfalls in a watershed basin located in south-west of Iran. In this research, 20 major floods characterized by high rainfall intensities and severe damage were selected. The pattern, extension, and the direction of movement of the selected synoptic maps from surface to 500 hPa pressure levels were identified. Furthermore, the position of cyclones, anti-cyclones and mid-level trough lines were carefully tracked and classified into different groups. The results show that the major severe floods occurring in Dalaki watershed river basin are mainly influenced by strengthening of the center of Sudan heat low (SHL) and the coincidence moisture feeding by the Indian Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. It was found that simultaneous merging of the SHL system and Mediterranean frontal system would intensify the flood intensities over the basin. The mean positions of high pressures, low pressures, the Red Sea trough lines and 1015 hPa isobars of the major floods are also discussed.
Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is one of the major systems in making the general circulation of atmosphere. Many climatologists believe that the starting point of the general circulation of atmosphere is from this system. It seems that the annual displacement of this system is coordinated with the sun. In this study we have tried to investigate the annual and seasonal displacement of this system within the range of Middle East, especially within the range of longitude of Iran in a long period of time (statistical period of 66 years). This is the first study in the field of ITCZ monthly and annual longterm changes in Iran. In this study, not only his exact position on Africa and South West Asia ITCZ is determined, it also shows the change in the period of 66 years. These results can also be used on regional climate changes. For this purpose topographic and surface level pressure maps are 1000 and 850 hpa and they were approximately extracted monthly for 12 months of the year from 1948 to 2013 and also they were extracted from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Site in America within the range of 30˚ west to 110˚ east, and they were extracted by using the flow map of location (ITCZ). Due to the sudden displacement in the ITCZ bar path in the two seasons of summer and winter, on the Middle East region, the direct impact of this displacement on sudden changes of seasons, the start and end of untimely rains, its impacts on agricultural products and water recourses of the country so all these reasons are essential that this phenomenon should be studied carefully. Studies have shown that ITCZ is not a coordinated solar system and its displacement is not coordinate with the apparent annual displacement of the sun. October is the only month of ITCZ that within the range of 10 northern degrees in all the ranges of longitude 20˚ west to 110˚ east has an approximate orbital shape. In 6 months of the year (from November to April) (ITCZ) within the range of 30˚ east or 110˚ east, it is entirely located in the Southern Hemisphere and on the contrary in 5 months from May to September (ITCZ) within the range of 30˚ 13east to 110˚ east, it is entirely located in the Northern Hemisphere. And in this period, ITCZ has its highest Northern movement on the Earth. So that at the foot of the Himalayas it moves to 30˚ north. Within the range of Africa, ITCZ never enters the Southern Hemisphere at any time of the year. And the interesting phenomenon of severe refraction in the way of ITCZ, during the cold period, is within the range of Ethiopia and ITCZ has approximately redirected for Meridian and enters the Southern Hemisphere.
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