Abstract. This paper quantifies the pre-industrial (1850) to present-day (2014) effective radiative forcing (ERF) of anthropogenic emissions of NOX, volatile organic compounds (VOCs; including CO), SO2, NH3, black carbon, organic carbon, and concentrations of methane, N2O and ozone-depleting halocarbons, using CMIP6 models. Concentration and emission changes of reactive species can cause multiple changes in the composition of radiatively active species: tropospheric ozone, stratospheric ozone, stratospheric water vapour, secondary inorganic and organic aerosol, and methane. Where possible we break down the ERFs from each emitted species into the contributions from the composition changes. The ERFs are calculated for each of the models that participated in the AerChemMIP experiments as part of the CMIP6 project, where the relevant model output was available. The 1850 to 2014 multi-model mean ERFs (± standard deviations) are −1.03 ± 0.37 W m−2 for SO2 emissions, −0.25 ± 0.09 W m−2 for organic carbon (OC), 0.15 ± 0.17 W m−2 for black carbon (BC) and −0.07 ± 0.01 W m−2 for NH3. For the combined aerosols (in the piClim-aer experiment) it is −1.01 ± 0.25 W m−2. The multi-model means for the reactive well-mixed greenhouse gases (including any effects on ozone and aerosol chemistry) are 0.67 ± 0.17 W m−2 for methane (CH4), 0.26 ± 0.07 W m−2 for nitrous oxide (N2O) and 0.12 ± 0.2 W m−2 for ozone-depleting halocarbons (HC). Emissions of the ozone precursors nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and both together (O3) lead to ERFs of 0.14 ± 0.13, 0.09 ± 0.14 and 0.20 ± 0.07 W m−2 respectively. The differences in ERFs calculated for the different models reflect differences in the complexity of their aerosol and chemistry schemes, especially in the case of methane where tropospheric chemistry captures increased forcing from ozone production.

Abstract. The impact of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) on the regional climate in South America is assessed using 30-year simulations with a global atmosphere-only configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. We compare two simulations of high and low emissions of biomass burning aerosol based on realistic interannual variability. The aerosol scheme in the model has hygroscopic growth and optical properties for BBA informed by recent observations, including those from the recent South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) intensive aircraft observations made during September 2012. We find that the difference in the September (peak biomass emissions month) BBA optical depth between a simulation with high emissions and a simulation with low emissions corresponds well to the difference in the BBA emissions between the two simulations, with a 71.6 % reduction from high to low emissions for both the BBA emissions and the BB AOD in the region with maximum emissions (defined by a box of extent 5–25∘ S, 40–70∘ W, used for calculating mean values given below). The cloud cover at all altitudes in the region of greatest BBA difference is reduced as a result of the semi-direct effect, by heating of the atmosphere by the BBA and changes in the atmospheric stability and surface fluxes. Within the BBA layer the cloud is reduced by burn-off, while the higher cloud changes appear to be responding to stability changes. The boundary layer is reduced in height and stabilized by increased BBA, resulting in reduced deep convection and reduced cloud cover at heights of 9–14 km, above the layer of BBA. Despite the decrease in cloud fraction, September downwelling clear-sky and all-sky shortwave radiation at the surface is reduced for higher emissions by 13.77 ± 0.39 W m−2 (clear-sky) and 7.37 ± 2.29 W m−2 (all-sky), whilst the upwelling shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere is increased in clear sky by 3.32 ± 0.09 W m−2, but decreased by -1.36±1.67 W m−2 when cloud changes are included. Shortwave heating rates increase in the aerosol layer by 18 % in the high emissions case. The mean surface temperature is reduced by 0.14 ± 0.24 ∘C and mean precipitation is reduced by 14.5 % in the peak biomass region due to both changes in cloud cover and cloud microphysical properties. If the increase in BBA occurs in a particularly dry year, the resulting reduction in precipitation may exacerbate the drought. The position of the South Atlantic high pressure is slightly altered by the presence of increased BBA, and the strength of the southward low-level jet to the east of the Andes is increased. There is some evidence that some impacts of increased BBA persist through the transition into the monsoon, particularly in precipitation, but the differences are only statistically significant in some small regions in November. This study therefore provides an insight into how variability in deforestation, realized through variability in biomass burning emissions, may contribute to the South American climate, and consequently on the possible impacts of future changes in BBA emissions.

Abstract. Feedbacks play a fundamental role in determining the magnitude of the response of the climate system to external forcing, such as from anthropogenic emissions. The latest generation of Earth system models includes aerosol and chemistry components that interact with each other and with the biosphere. These interactions introduce a complex web of feedbacks that is important to understand and quantify. This paper addresses multiple pathways for aerosol and chemical feedbacks in Earth system models. These focus on changes in natural emissions (dust, sea salt, dimethyl sulfide, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) and lightning) and changes in reaction rates for methane and ozone chemistry. The feedback terms are then given by the sensitivity of a pathway to climate change multiplied by the radiative effect of the change. We find that the overall climate feedback through chemistry and aerosols is negative in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) Earth system models due to increased negative forcing from aerosols in a climate with warmer surface temperatures following a quadrupling of CO2 concentrations. This is principally due to increased emissions of sea salt and BVOCs which are sensitive to climate change and cause strong negative radiative forcings. Increased chemical loss of ozone and methane also contributes to a negative feedback. However, overall methane lifetime is expected to increase in a warmer climate due to increased BVOCs. Increased emissions of methane from wetlands would also offset some of the negative feedbacks. The CMIP6 experimental design did not allow the methane lifetime or methane emission changes to affect climate, so we found a robust negative contribution from interactive aerosols and chemistry to climate sensitivity in CMIP6 Earth system models.

Data assimilation is predominantly used for state estimation, combining observational data with model predictions to produce an updated model state that most accurately approximates the true system state whilst keeping the model parameters fixed. This updated model state is then used to initiate the next model forecast. Even with perfect initial data, inaccurate model parameters will lead to the growth of prediction errors. To generate reliable forecasts, we need good estimates of both the current system state and the model parameters. This article presents research into data assimilation methods for morphodynamic model state and parameter estimation. First, we focus on state estimation and describe implementation of a three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme in a simple 2D morphodynamic model of Morecambe Bay, UK. The assimilation of observations of bathymetry derived from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellite imagery and a ship-borne survey is shown to significantly improve the predictive capability of the model over a 2-year run. Here, the model parameters are set by manual calibration; this is laborious and is found to produce different parameter values depending on the type and coverage of the validation dataset. The second part of this article considers the problem of model parameter estimation in more detail. We explain how, by employing the technique of state augmentation, it is possible to use data assimilation to estimate uncertain model parameters concurrently with the model state. This approach removes inefficiencies associated with manual calibration and enables more effective use of observational data. We outline the development of a novel hybrid sequential 3D-Var data assimilation algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation and demonstrate its efficacy using an idealised 1D sediment transport model. The results of this study are extremely positive and suggest that there is great potential for the use of data assimilation-based state-parameter estimation in coastal morphodynamic modelling.

This Guaranteed Time Key Programme, approved by the European Space Agency, aims at determining the distribution, the evolution and the origin of water in Mars, the Outer Planets, Titan, Enceladus and Comets, using the three Herschel instruments HIFI, PACS and SPIRE. It addresses the broad topic of water and its isotopologues in planetary and cometary atmospheres. The nature of cometary activity and the thermodynamics of cometary comae will be investigated by studying water excitation in a sample of comets. The D/H ratio, the key parameter for constraining the origin and evolution of Solar System species, will be measured for the first time in a Jupiter-family comet. A comparison with existing and new measurements of D/H in Oort-cloud comets will constrain the composition of pre-solar cometary grains and possibly the dynamics of the protosolar nebula. New measurements of D/H in Giant Planets, similarly constraining the composition of proto-planetary ices, will be obtained. The D/H and other isotopic ratios, diagnostic of Mars' atmosphere evolution, will be accurately measured in H 2 O and CO. The role of water vapour in Mars' atmospheric chemistry will be studied by monitoring vertical profiles of H 2 O and HDO and by searching for several other species (and CO and H 2 O isotopes). A detailed study of the source of water in the upper atmosphere of the Giant Planets and Titan will be performed. By monitoring the water abundance, vertical profile, and input fluxes in the various objects, and when possible with the help of mapping observations, we will discriminate between the possible sources of water in the Outer Planets (interplanetary dust particles, cometary impacts, and local sources). In addition to these inter-connected objectives, serendipitous searches may further enhance our knowledge of the composition of planetary and cometary atmospheres. For further details see: