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For the most popular sequential change detection rules such as CUSUM, EWMA, and the Shiryaev-Roberts test, we develop integral equations and a concise numerical method to compute a number of performance metrics, including average detection delay and average time to false alarm. We pay special attention to the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure and evaluate its performance for various initialization strategies. Regarding the randomized initialization variant proposed by Pollak, known to be asymptotically optimal of order-3, we offer a means for numerically computing the quasi-stationary distribution of the Shiryaev-Roberts statistic that is the distribution of the initializing random variable, thus making this test applicable in practice. A significant side-product of our computational technique is the observation that deterministic initializations of the Shiryaev-Roberts procedure can also enjoy the same order-3 optimality property as Pollak's randomized test and, after careful selection, even uniformly outperform it.

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When a sensor has continuous measurements but sends limited messages over a data network to a supervisor which estimates the state, the available packet rate fixes the achievable quality of state estimation. When such rate limits turn stringent, the sensor's messaging policy should be designed anew. What are the good causal messaging policies ? What should message packets contain ? What is the lowest possible distortion in a causal estimate at the supervisor ? Is Delta sampling better than periodic sampling ? We answer these questions under an idealized model of the network and the assumption of perfect measurements at the sensor. If the state process is a scalar, or a vector of low dimension, then we can ignore sample quantization. If in addition, we can ignore jitter in the transmission delays over the network, then our search for efficient messaging policies simplifies. Firstly, each message packet should contain the value of the state at that time. Thus a bound on the number of data packets becomes a bound on the number of state samples. Secondly, the remaining choice in messaging is entirely about the times when samples are taken. For a scalar, linear diffusion process, we study the problem of choosing the causal sampling times that will give the lowest aggregate squared error distortion. We stick to finite-horizons and impose a hard upper bound N on the number of allowed samples. We cast the design as a problem of choosing an optimal sequence of stopping times. We reduce this to a nested sequence of problems each asking for a single optimal stopping time. Under an unproven but natural assumption about the least-square estimate at the supervisor, each of these single stopping problems are of standard form. The optimal stopping times are random times when the estimation error exceeds designed envelopes. For the case where the state is a Brownian motion, we give analytically: the shape of the optimal sampling envelopes, the shape of the envelopes under optimal Delta sampling, and their performances. Surprisingly, we find that Delta sampling performs badly. Hence, when the rate constraint is a hard limit on the number of samples over a finite horizon, we should should not use Delta sampling. arXiv:0904.4358v2 [math.OC]

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