Cophylogeny is the congruence of phylogenetic relationships between two different groups of organisms due to their long‐term interaction. We investigated the use of tree shape distance measures to quantify the degree of cophylogeny. We implemented a reverse‐time simulation model of pathogen phylogenies within a fixed host tree, given cospeciation probability, host switching, and pathogen speciation rates. We used this model to evaluate 18 distance measures between host and pathogen trees including two kernel distances that we developed for labeled and unlabeled trees, which use branch lengths and accommodate different size trees. Finally, we used these measures to revisit published cophylogenetic studies, where authors described the observed associations as representing a high or low degree of cophylogeny. Our simulations demonstrated that some measures are more informative than others with respect to specific coevolution parameters especially when these did not assume extreme values. For real datasets, trees’ associations projection revealed clustering of high concordance studies suggesting that investigators are describing it in a consistent way. Our results support the hypothesis that measures can be useful for quantifying cophylogeny. This motivates their usage in the field of coevolution and supports the development of simulation‐based methods, i.e., approximate Bayesian computation, to estimate the underlying coevolutionary parameters.

Reconstructing the early dynamics of the HIV-1 pandemic can provide crucial insights into the socioeconomic drivers of emerging infectious diseases in human populations, including the roles of urbanization and transportation networks. Current evidence indicates that the global pandemic comprising almost entirely of HIV-1/M originated around the 1920s in central Africa. However, these estimates are based on molecular clock estimates that are assumed to apply uniformly across the virus genome. There is growing evidence that recombination has played a significant role in the early history of the HIV-1 pandemic, such that different regions of the HIV-1 genome have different evolutionary histories. In this study, we have conducted a dated-tip analysis of all near full-length HIV-1/M genome sequences that were published in the GenBank database. We used a sliding window approach similar to the ‘bootscanning’ method for detecting breakpoints in inter-subtype recombinant sequences. We found evidence of substantial variation in estimated root dates among windows, with an estimated mean time to the most recent common ancestor of 1922. Estimates were significantly autocorrelated, which was more consistent with an early recombination event than with stochastic error variation in phylogenetic reconstruction and dating analyses. A piecewise regression analysis supported the existence of at least one recombination breakpoint in the HIV-1/M genome with interval-specific means around 1929 and 1913, respectively. This analysis demonstrates that a sliding window approach can accommodate early recombination events outside the established nomenclature of HIV-1/M subtypes, although it is difficult to incorporate the earliest available samples due to their limited genome coverage.

Cophylogeny is the congruence of phylogenetic relationships between two different groups of organisms due to their long‐term interaction. We investigated the use of tree shape distance measures to quantify the degree of cophylogeny. We implemented a reverse‐time simulation model of pathogen phylogenies within a fixed host tree, given cospeciation probability, host switching, and pathogen speciation rates. We used this model to evaluate 18 distance measures between host and pathogen trees including two kernel distances that we developed for labeled and unlabeled trees, which use branch lengths and accommodate different size trees. Finally, we used these measures to revisit published cophylogenetic studies, where authors described the observed associations as representing a high or low degree of cophylogeny. Our simulations demonstrated that some measures are more informative than others with respect to specific coevolution parameters especially when these did not assume extreme values. For real datasets, trees’ associations projection revealed clustering of high concordance studies suggesting that investigators are describing it in a consistent way. Our results support the hypothesis that measures can be useful for quantifying cophylogeny. This motivates their usage in the field of coevolution and supports the development of simulation‐based methods, i.e., approximate Bayesian computation, to estimate the underlying coevolutionary parameters.

Significance Recombination is a major mechanism through which HIV type 1 (HIV-1) maintains genetic diversity and interferes with viral eradication efforts. There is growing evidence demonstrating a recombinant origin of primate lentiviruses including HIV-1 group M (HIV-1/M). Inferring the extent of recombination across the entire HIV-1/M genome is of great importance as it provides deeper insights into the origin, dynamics, and evolution of the global pandemic. Here we propose an alternative method that can reconstruct the extent of genome-wide recombination in HIV-1, uncover reticulate patterns, and serve as a framework for HIV-1 classification. Our method provides an alternative approach for understanding the roles of virus recombination in the early evolutionary history of zoonosis for other emerging viruses.

License Authors of papers retain copyright and release the work under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY).