Understanding the natural variability of climate is important for predicting its near-term evolution. Models of the oceans' thermohaline and wind-driven circulation show low-frequency oscillations. Long instrumental records can help validate the oscillatory behavior of these models. Singular spectrum analysis applied to the 335-year-long central England temperature (CET) record has identified climate oscillations with interannual (7- to 8-year) and interdecadal (15- and 25-year) periods, probably related to the North Atlantic's wind-driven and thermohaline circulation, respectively. Statistical prediction of oscillatory variability shows CETs decreasing toward the end of this decade and rising again into the middle of the next.
The influence of the warm and cold sea-surface temperatures in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific associated with El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) on the probability of occurrence of weather regimes (WRs) over the North Atlantic sector is investigated for the period November-March. Five WRs are identified from daily sea-level pressure anomalies (SLPAs) during 119 winters over this sector by applying cluster analysis: the positive North Atlantic oscillation (NAO; called ZO for zonal) and negative NAO (called WBL for west blocking) patterns; GA (for Greenland anticyclone), with a positive SLPA shifted north of 60°N; EA (for European anticyclone) with a positive SLPA over Europe but enhanced north-south SLPA gradient over the western and central North Atlantic; and AR (for Atlantic Ridge) with a positive (negative) SLPA over the central North Atlantic (northern and central Europe).El Niño winters are associated with a significant increase (decrease) in the prevalence of ZO (WBL) in November-December and a significant increase (decrease) in the prevalence of GA and WBL (EA and ZO)
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