Climate change and increasing habitat loss greatly impact species survival, requiring range shifts, phenotypic plasticity and/or evolutionary change for long-term persistence, which may not readily occur unaided in threatened species. Therefore, defining conservation actions requires a detailed assessment of evolutionary factors. Existing genetic diversity needs to be thoroughly evaluated and spatially mapped to define conservation units (CUs) in an evolutionary context, and we address that here. We also propose a multidisciplinary approach to determine corridors and functional connectivity between CUs by including genetic diversity in the modelling while controlling for isolation by distance and phylogeographic history. We evaluate our approach on a Near Threatened Iberian endemic rodent by analysing genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) genomic data from 107 Cabrera voles (Microtus cabrerae), screening the entire species distribution to define categories of CUs and their connectivity: We defined six management units (MUs) which can be grouped into four evolutionarily significant units (ESUs) and three (putatively) adaptive units (AUs). We demonstrate that the three different categories of CU can be objectively defined using genomic data, and their characteristics and connectivity can inform conservation decision-making. In particular, we show that connectivity of the Cabrera vole is very limited in eastern Iberia and that the pre-Pyrenean and part of the Betic geographic nuclei contribute the most to the species genetic diversity. We argue that a multidisciplinary framework for CU definition is essential and that this framework needs a strong evolutionary basis.

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a b s t r a c tForecasting species range shifts under climate change is critical to adapt conservation strategies to future environmental conditions. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are often used to achieve this goal, but their accuracy is limited when species niches are inadequately sampled. This problem may be tackled by combining ENM with field validation to fine-tune current species distribution, though the traditional methods are often time-consuming and the species ID inaccurate. Here we combine ENM with novel field validation methods based on non-invasive genetic sampling to forecast range shifts in the globally near-threatened Cabrera vole (Microtus cabrerae). Using occurrence records mapped at 10 km × 10 km resolution, we built the first ENM (ENM1) to estimate the current species distribution. We then selected 40 grid squares with no previous data along the predicted range margins, and surveyed suitable habitats through presencesign searches. Faecal samples visually assigned to the species were collected for genetic identification based on the mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene, which resulted in 19 new grid squares with confirmed presence records. The second model (ENM2) was built by adding the new data, and species distribution maps predicted by each model under current and future climate change scenarios were compared. Both models had high predictive ability, with strong influence of temperature and precipitation. Although current distribution ranges predicted by each model were quite similar, the range shifts predicted under climate change differed greatly when using additional field data. In particular, ENM1 overlooked areas identified as important by ENM2 for species conservation in the future. Overall, results suggest that combining ENM with non-invasive genetics may provide a cost-effective approach in studies regarding species conservation under environmental change.

Understanding the relationship between spatial patterns of landscape attributes and population presence and abundance is essential for understanding population processes as well as supporting management and conservation strategies. This study evaluates the influence of three factors: environment, habitat management, and season on the presence and abundance of the wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus), an important prey species for Mediterranean endangered predator species. To address this issue, we estimated wild rabbit presence and abundance by latrine counting in transects located in 45 plots within a 250×250 m grid from June 2007 until June 2009 in a 1,200 ha hunting area in southern Portugal. We then analyzed how wild rabbit presence and abundance correlate with the aforementioned factors. Our results showed that the main variable influencing wild rabbit presence and abundance was the distance to the artificial warrens. North and northeast slope directions were negatively related to wild rabbit presence. Conversely, rabbit presence was positively correlated with short distances to ecotone, artificial warrens, and spring. Regarding rabbit abundance, in addition to artificial warrens, soft soils, bushes, and season also had a positive effect. We found that environmental variables, management practices, and season each affect wild rabbit presence and abundance differently at a home range scale in low-density population. Thus, our major recommendations are reducing the distance to artificial warrens and ecotone, ideally to less than 100 m, and promoting habitat quality improvement on slopes with plenty of sun exposure.