A change in the cutoff age in the current AJCC/UICC staging system from 45 years to 55 years would lead to a downstaging of 12% of patients, and would improve the statistical validity of the model. Such a change would be clinically relevant for thousands of patients worldwide by preventing overstaging of patients with low-risk disease while providing a more realistic estimate of prognosis for those who remain high risk.
Background: In most staging systems, 45 years of age is used to differentiate low risk thyroid cancer from high risk thyroid cancer. However, recent studies have questioned both the precise 45 year age point and the concept of using a binary cut off as accurate predictors of disease specific mortality. Methods: A cohort of 3664 thyroid cancer patients that received surgery and adjuvant treatment at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (MSKCC) from the years 1985 to 2010 were analyzed to determine the significance of age at diagnosis as a categorical variable at a variety of age cutoffs (5 year intervals between 30 and 70 years of age). The unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratio for the association between disease-specific survival and age was determined using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for other predictive variables sex, histology, and pathological T, N, and M status. Furthermore, predictive nomograms of disease-specific mortality were created and validated on an external dataset of 4551 patients to evaluate the impact of age at diagnosis as both a categorical and continuous variable. Results: In the MSKCC cohort, with a median follow-up time of 54 months (range 1-332), there were 59 deaths from thyroid cancer with a 10 year disease-specific survival of 96%. Adjusted hazard ratios for all age cutoffs from age 30 to age 70 years were significant. There was no specific cutoff age which risk stratifies patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Categorizing age into five strata (<40, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69 and >70 years) showed a 37-fold increase in hazard ratio from age <40 years to age >70 years. A predictive nomogram using age as a continuous variable with other predictive variables had a high concordance index of 96%. Validation on the external cohort had a concordance index of 73%. Conclusions: Mortality from DTC increases progressively with advancing age. There is no specific cutoff age which risk stratifies patients with DTC. A predictive nomogram using age as a continuous variable may be a more appropriate tool for stratifying patients with DTC and for predicting outcome.
With appropriate surgery and adjuvant therapy, excellent locoregional control can be achieved in PDTC. Disease-specific deaths occurred due to distant metastases and rarely due to uncontrolled locoregional recurrence in this series.
Background
Oropharyngeal cancers (OPC) secondary to human papillomavirus (HPV) infections likely represent a completely different disease compared with conventional head and neck cancers. Our objective was to analyze a surgically treated cohort to determine predictors of outcome in HPV-positive versus HPV-negative patients.
Methods
HPV positivity was inferred based on p16-immunohistochemistry. Data was available for 201 patients with OPC treated with surgical resection with/without adjuvant radiotherapy between 1985 and 2005. Subsite distribution was: 66 (33 %) tonsil, 46 (23 %) soft palate, and 89 (44 %) tongue base. Patients were classified into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups based on p16 status and smoking history. Outcomes stratified by p16 status and risk groups were determined by the Kaplan–Meier method. Factors predictive of outcome were determined by univariate and multivariate analyses.
Results
In this cohort, 30 % had locally advanced disease (pT3/T4) and 71 % had nodal metastasis. The 5-year overall (OS), disease-specific, and recurrence-free survival rates were 60, 76, and 66 %, respectively. There were 22 % low-, 34 % intermediate-, and 44 % high-risk patients. Patients who were p16-positive had better survival compared with p16-negative (OS, 74 vs. 44 %; p < .001). Similarly, low-risk group patients had a better survival compared with intermediate- and high-risk groups (OS, 76, 68, 45 %, respectively, p < .001). Independent predictors of survival in p16-negative patients included margin status, lymphovascular invasion, pN status, and extracapsular spread. In contrast, none of these were predictive in p16-positive patients.
Conclusions
Surgically treated patients with p16-positive OPC have superior survival compared with p16-negative patients. Outcomes in p16-positive and p16-negative OPC are determined by different prognostic factors supporting the notion that these are very different diseases. These should be incorporated into future clinical trials design.
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