Abstract:In November 2011, an Atlantic depression affected the Mediterranean basin, eventually evolving into a Tropical-Like Cyclone (TLC or Mediterranean Hurricane, usually designated as Medicane). In the region affected by the Medicane, mean sea level pressures down to 990 hPa, wind speeds of hurricane intensity close to the eye (around 115 km/h) and intense rainfall in the prefrontal zone were reported. The intensity of this event, together with its long permanence over the sea, suggested its suitability as a paradigmatic case for investigating the sensitivity of a numerical modeling system to different configurations, air-sea interface parameterizations and coupling approaches. Toward this aim, a set of numerical experiments with different parameterization schemes and levels of coupling complexity was carried out within the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport System (COAWST), which allows the description of air-sea dynamics by coupling an atmospheric model (WRF), an ocean circulation model (ROMS), and a wave model (SWAN). The sensitivity to different initialization times and Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) parameterizations was firstly investigated by running a set of WRF standalone (atmospheric-only) simulations. In order to better understand the effect of coupling on the TLC formation, intensification and trajectory, different configurations of atmosphere-ocean coupling were subsequently tested, eventually including the full coupling among atmosphere, ocean and waves, also changing the PBL parameterization and the formulation of the surface roughness. Results show a strong sensitivity of both the trajectory and the intensity of this TLC to the initial conditions, while the tracks and intensities provided by the coupled modeling approaches explored in this study do not introduce drastic modifications with respect to those resulting from a fine-tuned standalone atmospheric run, though they provide by definition a better physical and energetic consistency. Nevertheless; the use of different schemes for the calculation of the surface roughness from wave motion, which reflects the description of air-sea interface processes, can significantly affect the results in the fully coupled runs.
In this paper, an observational space-time ensemble of sea surface elevations is investigated in search of the highest waves of the sea state. Wave data were gathered by means of a stereo camera system, which was installed on top of a fixed oceanographic platform located in the Adriatic Sea (Italy). Waves were measured during a mature sea state with an average wind speed of 11 m s 21 . By examining the space-time ensemble, the 3D wave groups have been isolated while evolving in the 2D space and grabbed ''when and where'' they have been close to the apex of their development, thus exhibiting large surface displacements. The authors have selected the groups displaying maximal crest height exceeding the threshold adopted to define rogue waves in a time record, that is, 1.25 times the significant wave height (H s ). The records at the spatial positions where such large crests occurred have been analyzed to derive the empirical distributions of crest and wave heights, which have been compared against standard statistical linear and nonlinear models. Here, the maximal observed wave crests have resulted to be outliers of the standard statistics, behaving as isolated members of the sample, apparently uncorrelated with other waves of the record. However, this study has found that these unexpectedly large wave crests are better approximated by a space-time model for extreme crest heights. The space-time model performance has been improved, deriving a second-order approximation of the linear model, which has provided a fair agreement with the empirical maxima. The present investigation suggests that very large waves may be more numerous than generally expected.
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