Abstract. We present Nemo-Nordic, a Baltic and
North Sea model based on the NEMO ocean engine. Surrounded by highly industrialized
countries, the Baltic and North seas and their assets associated with
shipping, fishing and tourism are vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure and
climate change. Ocean models providing reliable forecasts and enabling
climatic studies are important tools for the shipping infrastructure and to
get a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the marine
ecosystems. Nemo-Nordic is intended to be a tool for both short-term and
long-term simulations and to be used for ocean forecasting as well as process
and climatic studies. Here, the scientific and technical choices within
Nemo-Nordic are introduced, and the reasons behind the design of the model
and its domain and the inclusion of the two seas are explained. The model's
ability to represent barotropic and baroclinic dynamics, as well as the
vertical structure of the water column, is presented. Biases are shown and
discussed. The short-term capabilities of the model are presented, especially
its capabilities to represent sea level on an hourly timescale with a high
degree of accuracy. We also show that the model can represent longer
timescales, with a focus on the major Baltic inflows and the variability in
deep-water salinity in the Baltic Sea.
We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.
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